China released population data, showing negative growth for the first time in 61 years. At the end of last year, China had a registered population of 1.41 billion, 9.56 million births, 10.41 million deaths, a negative population growth of 850,000, and a negative growth rate of 0.000%. six. China’s development may face a “turning point” with a shrinking population.
The key to negative population growth is the decline in the birth rate. The population born in 2022 will be 9.56 million, in 2021 it will be 10.62 million, in 2020 it will be 12 million, in 2019 it will be 14 million Six hundred and fifty thousand. The number of births decreased by 5.09 million in the past four years. Although the number of births decreased by 10% last year, the decline slowed down, but the overall trend is still difficult to be optimistic.
Low fertility is a common problem in modern society. With the improvement of China’s economic development and rapid urbanization, it is impossible to escape this trend. Experts believe that the factors contributing to China’s low birth rate include high housing, education and medical costs, and young people’s lack of willingness to marry and have children. This trend has also been exacerbated by the three-year-old new crown epidemic and high unemployment among young people. After the epidemic, the fertility rate may rebound slightly, but the general direction remains unchanged.
The state has intervened. The “one-child” policy was abolished by 2016, and couples were further allowed to have three children by 2021. It is estimated that these policies slightly increased the birth rate, but failed to reverse the downward trend in the birth rate. The policy is not strong enough.
In the long run, according to the predictions of UN experts, if there is no successful intervention, China’s total population will decrease by 109 million by 2050. more than three times the forecast made in 2009.
Some analysts pointed out that negative population growth is not good for economic development. In addition to the “demographic dividend no longer”, the reduction of the labor force and the aging of the age structure will lead to a decline in economic growth, a decline in effective demand, a decrease in consumer spending, a decrease in corporate profits, and a decrease in savings and investment. Wait.
There are three directions to deal with negative population growth:
1. Build an industrial system that matches human resources, especially automation, high-tech, and high value-added industries, so as to maintain growth.
2. Encourage childbirth with various policies.
3. Supplementing the population through immigration and other means.
I would like to focus on the third point, population immigration. You can look at the example of the United States. The U.S. population increased by 1.2 million last year to 330 million. First of all, there is still a net increase in the natural population of the United States (births minus deaths). Last year, there was a net increase of 245,000. This is the first net increase since 2007.
But the increase in the U.S. population is mainly due to immigration. Net international migration, which is the net number of people entering the United States minus those leaving the United States, was more than one million in 2022, an increase of 1.60 million from the previous year’s net international migration of 376,000 eight percent.
If China wants to consider introducing immigrants, it can start with a substantial increase in overseas students. In 2022, there will be 10.76 million Chinese college graduates, an increase of 1.67 million from last year, which is the first time in history that the number of graduates has exceeded 10 million. But the student population has begun to decrease. Now there are about 18 million primary school students in each grade, 16.73 million junior high school students in each grade, but only 8.6 million high school students in each grade. 80,000 (high school is not compulsory), even college degrees are sufficient now. However, the population born in 2022 will only be 9.56 million, which is half of the current number of primary school students. It can be predicted that there will be a surplus of college places in 20 years.
Universities in China must vigorously attract international students, especially the top 20 universities. They must also set up specialized international colleges and have supporting scholarship systems to attract a large number of high-quality students from all over the world to study in China. If foreign youths study in China, they have a great chance of staying in China to develop. If China absorbs 2 million foreign students every year, and half of them stay in China, it will replenish 1 million talents every year. The United States relies on the American Dream to attract global talents, and China can also use the Chinese Dream to attract global talents.
In the past, China could set a goal of poverty alleviation in ten years, and now it can also set a goal of population balance, and the negative growth of population cannot be allowed to continue. First set the goal of population balance, and then try to find ways to achieve it.
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Lu Yongxiong
