LSI Survey Shows Prabowo-Gibran Leading in 2024 Presidential Election in East Java

Editorial Team, CNBC Indonesia

Friday, 01/05/2024 18:40 IWST

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) noted that the electability of candidate pair number 2 Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka far outperformed their two rivals in East Java in the 2024 presidential election.

LSI Executive Director Djayadi Hanan said that in a survey with a simulation of 3 pairs, the electability of Prabowo-Gibran was 46.7 percent, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md 26.6 percent and Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar (AMIN) was 16.2 percent.

“Prabowo-Gibran was in first place for votes if the presidential election was held at the time the survey was conducted, namely at 46.7 percent,” he said at a press conference, Friday (5/1).

There were 10.4 percent of respondents who had not yet made a choice. Apart from that, he said that as many as 21.3 percent of respondents admitted that they still had the opportunity to change their choice.

Djayadi said that if the 2024 presidential election is held in two rounds, it is certain that the Prabowo-Gibran pair will be the winners in East Java.

The reason is, he said that the electability of the Prabowo-Gibran pair was able to reach 57.3 percent when faced directly with the AMIN pair which was only 21.8 percent.

Meanwhile, when faced with Ganjar-Mahfud, Djayadi said Prabowo-Gibran’s electability was at 53.3 percent. This figure, he said, surpassed Ganjar-Mahfud’s electability which was only 28.7 percent.

“So if 18.2 percent of the undecided votes are transferred to Ganjar-Mahfud, Prabowo-Gibran will still emerge as the winner,” he said.

“If Ganjar and Anies enter the second round, the tendency is for Ganjar to be superior with 43.3 percent compared to Anies’ 25.3 percent,” he added.

The LSI survey was conducted on 16-28 December 2023. Meanwhile, the sampling method used was stratified random sampling with a total sample of 8,800 respondents who were residents of East Java.

The data collection technique in this survey was carried out by LSI through face-to-face interviews using a questionnaire with a margin of error of 1.1 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.

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