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Loqueelvientosellev – inflation: you left to come back (too soon)

Inflation in Spain has always been well above that of the environment. From 1965 to 2020 it has accounted for 2,811%, in Europe 856% and in the USA 727%; there are plenty of comments. These more than high percentages have been declining since the outbreak of the seventies, when it reached 25% per year, to the nullity, even negativity, of recent times, although, nevertheless, voices and indicators suggest a radical change in the trend so we are going to experience a modification on the stage.

If this happens broadly enough, what could be the consequences of the increase?

The first and most direct is the loss of purchasing power, that is, money is worth less. To equalize the equation, wages must rise, resulting in a dominance in which the working classes are harmed because their costs grow in greater proportion than their salaries. I note: have you noticed in the last months an increase in the prices of assets of habitual consumption such as electricity, fuels or the same shopping basket? Yes, right, and on your payroll?

A notable derivative is a rise in interest rates, both from the point of view of the investor, understood as a holder of fixed income assets, and of the taxpayer of variable rate loans or mortgages. We are going from a few years in which everyone (states included through public debt) has gone into debt because it was cheap to another in which there will be no resources to pay credits.

As for the stock markets, they can benefit as long as the management trend is to accommodate those seeking value rather than growth, since in recovery environments it is more appropriate.

As always, any past time was better.

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