United Nations or And publishes updates on world population trends every two years.publish information “trends in the world population“Issue 27 of 11 July, in the past due to”world population day“(World Population Day) fromBangkok businessHe summarized the important things to read in its entirety as follows:
India will have a larger population than China.
Although China has long held the position as the world’s most populous country with a population of over 1.4 billion, its population growth rate has steadily declined since the 1970s.one child policy“Started in 1979 in the era of government”Deng Xiaoping” to prevent the population from growing too much This has led many families to choose to have an abortion when they knew they were expecting a daughter. According to the beliefs of the Chinese people they tend to want more children to inherit.
Furthermore Such policies also have a long-term impact on China. if it is a question of labor shortages The number of male populations is several times higher than that of females. as well as joining an aging society This prompted China to cancel the one-child policy on January 1, 2016.
Later, in 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping approved the policy policy “3 children” instead ready to incentivize people to have children of various sizes how to give birth bonuses maternity benefits and school assistance for children But it seems that this policy is too late.
From the data on the 2021 annual birth rate ofChinese National Health Commissionfound inMany Chinese provinces have the lowest birth rates in decades. And some areas have the lowest birth rates in the past 60 years, with an average birth rate of just 7.52 per 1,000 inhabitants.
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“CantoneseConsidered the richest and most populous province in China, It was the only county out of 31 counties with more than 1 million new babies last year. Hunan Province The birth rate is below 500,000 for the first time in nearly 60 years. in the eastern part of the country It has a birth rate of less than 400,000 for the first time since the 1950s.
Yang Wenzhuang, head of affairs and population planning China’s National Health Commission said China’s population is expected to start shrinking further between 2021 and 2026 due toMost of the younger generation choose not to have children. for reasons of cost of living and work pressure
while india Although the fertility rate has dropped from 5.7 per woman in the 1950s to just two per woman today,This declining badge rate is slow. This is different from a child criterion. According to the United Nations, the population of China and India will be 1,430 million in 2025. before India overtakes China in 2026. With a population of 1,440 million, China remains at 1,430 million.
The report also noted that More than half of the world’s population growth by 2050 willConcentrated in just 8 countries These are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, the United States and Tanzania.
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for The 10 most populous countries in the world in the 2050s which consists of
- India 1,670,490,601 people, an increase of 18% compared to 2022.
- China 1,312,636,324 people, down 8% compared to 2022
- Nigeria 377,459,883, a 73% increase over 2022.
- US 375,391,965, up 11% compared to 2022
- Pakistan 367,808,468 people, a 56% increase compared to 2022.
- Indonesia 317,225,212 people, an increase of 15% compared to 2022
- Brazil 230,885,728 people, up 7% compared to 2022
- Democratic Republic of the Congo 217,494,004, an increase of 120% compared to 2022.
- Ethiopia 214,812,308 people, up 74% compared to 2022.
- Bangladesh 203,904,891, an increase of 19% compared to 2022.
Thailand The population is expected to be 67,880,087 within that decade. down by 5% compared to 2022
The world population will exceed 8 billion by the end of the year.
from 1975 onwards The population will increase by 1 billion every 12 years. This year the statistics remain the same, with the world reaching 7,000 by the end of 2011 and by the end of this year (2022) the world population of 8 billion, although the absolute growth rate is similar to the decade. previous one. butThe growth rate of the world population continues to decline. Since 2019, the population growth rate has fallen to less than 1%, with 0.82% in 2021, less than half that of the 1960s, when population growth was over 2.3%.
Covid-19 has killed more than 15 million people
The spread of the COVID-19 virus Significant impact on the world population and migration trends Despite revealing the number of deaths from COVID-19 which has been confirmed by the government of each country But there is a tendency to underestimate the number of deaths. Because the tests for COVID-19 are far less than they should be.
So one way the United Nations has used to check the number of deaths from COVID-19 is to check the total number of deaths in the year that the COVID-19 outbreak and the previous year that did not occur is The year 2019 saw an estimated 57,940,000 deaths worldwide.
In 2020 there were 63,170,000 deaths, an increase of about 5.23 billion, and in 2021, there were 69,250,000 deaths, an increase of 11,310,000. At least around 15 million people have died. This is close to other estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO), which estimates 14.9 million deaths from COVID-19 worldwide, while The Economist newspaper estimates the death toll at 17.6 million.
However These numbers are highly uncertain. But there is a high probability that the death toll from COVID-19 This is more than the actual reporting of just 5,400,000 cases worldwide.
The world population peaked at 10.4 billion in 2629.
Before “world population trendsThe 26th edition predicts that by 2100 the world population will be approximately 10,880 million people, and this will increase further. But in its latest report, the United Nations said The world population will peak in 2086, with only 10.4 billion people. The reason the peak population figure was lower and came before the original forecast was due to the UN expectsfertility rate (fertility rates) in low-income countries is in rapid decline. While fertility rates in high-income countries will only increase slightly in the second half of the century.
The global fertility rate continues to decline.
fertility rate isThe number indicates how many children a woman will give birth in her life. This will affect the factors that determine the world population rate. Fertility rates have been falling steadily for decades: in the 1950s, on average, a woman gave birth to five children in her lifetime. But the global fertility rate in the second half of 2021 dropped to just 2.3.
However, if you look at the fertility rate by country, it turns out that Most countries will have fertility rates at or below the replacement level. (Replacement level), especially in many high-income countries such as South Korea, Japan, Spain or Italy, has a low birth rate of 1.3 per woman. Furthermore, two-thirds of the world’s population lives in countries with a fertility rate of less than 2.1 people per woman.
Source: culture, Global times, Mathichon, Our world of data, World Economic Forum, World population outlook 2022, World population review
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