“We may have had our differences in the past, but we are allies, trading partners and friends.” This is how the British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, referred to the European Union this week after announcing a new agreement on the protocol for Northern Ireland, one of the great obstacles between the two after the Brexit. These words have not gone unnoticed by the British media and analysts who already point to “a new chapter” in the relations of both blocks. But what has happened to go, in just one year, from direct confrontation to fine words and negotiation?
“The war in Ukraine has brought the positions closer. The conflict has been an external shock that has changed the perspective of the relationship between both parties”, indicates to RTVE.es the analyst and professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent, Richard Whitman, about a conflict that has revived former “common enemies” of the Cold War such as Russia.
The transfer in Downing Street is another of the points that has favored the “change in tone” of the positions. “Sunak has always been in favor of Brexitbut clearly he has changed the tone in the negotiations that his predecessor has usedBoris Johnson, considered, at times, more offensive ”, assures, for his part, the professor of Politics at the University of Sussex, Paul Webb.
In the list of reasons, the political analyst of the organization ‘UK in a changing Europe’, Jill Rutter, also includes the “fatigue of the Brexit” and the desire to “turn the page” of the European and British leaderswhile CIDOB researcher Carmen Colomina points to the effect of the “complicated economic situation” through which the country passes.
The United Kingdom marked three years since its “divorce” with the EU took effect last January with 56% of voters admitting that it was a mistake to leave, according to a YouGov poll. Added to this is the high inflation that the country is experiencing, the wave of strikes and the convulsive political situation: in 2022 there have been up to three prime ministers (Boris Johnson, Lizz Truss and Rishi Sunak), five if we go back to the last six years.
The Ukrainian war, a common battle
The return of the war to European territory has served as a trigger to bring the British archipelago closer again to the rest of the continent, as happened in the Second World War. “It has reminded us that the UK has more in common with its neighbors than differences, which has led them to collaborate,” says Whitman.
“When the UK left the EU, it was lost an important vertex of the London-Paris-Berlin triangle, which was very representative for the European military capacity. In fact, before the war there were already some contacts seeking collaboration in defense matters, which has been precipitated by the war”, says Colomina.
“He recalled that the United Kingdom has more in common with its neighbors than differences“
The UK is the second country, only behind the United States, that has sent the most military aid to Ukraine individually with 2,300 million pounds in 2022, a figure that it has promised to match during this year. The EU, for its part, has approved the shipment of 3,600 million euros to help Ukraine, while its candidacy as a community member is being prepared. Both have also imposed harsh sanctions on Russia throughout the war.
“Their strengths have ended up being quite complementary: the United Kingdom was able to act quickly to help Ukraine, especially, in the initial stage of the war and the doubts of some partners. But, probably, in the long term and in particular for reconstruction, the EU will be more important”, adds Whitman about a collaboration that had not occurred “so clearly” during the COVID crisis in which “competition to get the vaccines.”
The two blocs also agree on the limits of support for kyiv, set on this occasion by NATO. The United Kingdom and the EU have assured that it will provide training to Ukrainian troops, but have refused, for the moment, the sending of aviation, as requested by the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky on a visit to London and Pariswhere he also met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Change in Downing Street drives dialogue
The dialogue between the UK and the EU has also been possible thanks to a change in leadership, remarks Paul Webb. “Has been a very different style of relationship between the EU and the UK from last yearleaving hostility aside and opting for mutual understanding”, he adds, about the signs of complicity between Sunak and the president of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Layen, in a joint appearance on Monday, in which the prime minister The British publicly recognized the “commitment and vision” of the German, who addressed him as “dear Rishi”.
On Sunak, Jill Rutter considers that “he does not strive to denigrate the EU, something that his two predecessors did.” “This puts him in a better position for the negotiation and it seems that the EU is willing to trust him,” she asserts. Whitman takes a tougher line: “Now it feels like a return of the adults in charge in the UK,” says Whitman, criticizing Johnson’s “defiance” attitude and the “unsymbolic” legacy of Truss.
“If we are fair, – Colomina adds – there has also been a clear change on the part of Brussels, giving more flexibility when negotiating. At this time, Ursula Von der Layen has also strengthened her position as president of the Commission and other partners such as Germany, with the new Minister for Foreign Affairs, Annalena Baerbock, have also opened up to negotiations. Sunak has even managed to get close to (French President) Macron, who is very critical of the United Kingdom leaving,” he says of the French president with whom the British Prime Minister even exchanged tweets, in a relaxed atmosphere, before a football match between the two nations in the World Cup in Qatar.
“There has also been a clear change on the part of Brussels, giving more flexibility when negotiating“
Rishi Sunak was elected as UK Prime Minister last October. This billionaire of Indian origin was one of the first to leave his position as finance minister before Johnson’s resignation and gained popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to the financial aid he launched, although he was fined for going to one of the parties held in Downing Street during the confinement. So far in his mandate, he has already had to reshape his government to deal with the energy crisis and has changed the ‘Tory’ president after a scandal over fiscal irregularities.
The Northern Irish protocol, an external issue with international projection
The causes of the rapprochement of the British Government to the European Union are not only externally motivated. Internally, the Northern Ireland protocol had provoked discontent among Belfast’s political parties, especially the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The formation has even refused to form a government with Sinn Féinnthe former political arm of the IRA and staunch defender of the reunification of Ireland, taking refuge in the fact that the previous agreement increased the bureaucracy for trade in the area with Twenty-seven.
Once the protocol is changed, if the DUP accepts it, it would lose “one of its main excuses” – Webb points out – for not support the first Sinn Féin government on the island, in compliance with the Good Friday Agreements for which the conflict in the area ended 25 years ago. “Depending on how the situation in Northern Ireland evolves, it will be seen whether Sunak’s strategy ends up having a future political payoff for him at the national level or not,” says Webb.
The rapprochement between the United Kingdom and the EU, materialized in the protocol for Northern Ireland, could also have an international reflection. “It could be positive for their relations abroad, especially with the United States,” considers Colomina, who recalls “the sensitivity of its president Joe Biden for the conflict in the area”, appealing to his Irish background. “The United States would prefer the West not be divided right now. So I think there’s some satisfaction by the country if the problem of the Northern Ireland protocol disappears,” says Whitman, who considers that “the division would only benefit Russia.”
Regarding how long the relationship could last, experts doubt whether it is “a temporary staging” or a “honeymoon”: “Politics is moving very fast in the United Kingdom and events have already occurred that we did not even expect. It is difficult to make forecasts”, laments Rutter, although they do agree that they all agree on marking the next 2025 elections on the calendar, which could mean a new change of direction in the United Kingdom.
