“Local Counterattacks by Ukrainian Defense Forces Prove Successful Near Bakhmut: ISW Report”

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report the success of the Defense Forces near Bakhmut thanks to local counterattacks.

Source: ISW

Details: According to the Institute, as of May 12, Ukrainian forces were making headway northwest of Bakhmut in local counterattacks.

The report notes that several Russian sources warned that Ukrainian troops could try to encircle Wagner PMCs within Bakhmut.

At the same time, the founder of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, emphasized that Ukrainian troops were approaching Berkhovka, and said that Ukraine now occupies positions within 500 meters of the northwestern outskirts of Bakhmut.

The so-called Russian military bloggers also reported that Ukrainian forces were counterattacking in the direction of Khromovoye (3km west of Bakhmut), Bohdanovka (6km northwest of Bakhmut) and Klischeevka (6km southwest of Bakhmut).

One of them claimed that the situation southwest of Bakhmut in the Maiorsk region had stabilized after Ukrainian attacks on the positions of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic”.

And the Russian Ministry of Defense (MO) rejected statements from other sources in the Russian Federation about the advancement of Ukrainian troops and stated that units of the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade (the self-proclaimed “LPR” – ed.) and the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade (14th army corps , Northern Fleet – ed.) repulsed all attacks in the Berkhovka area, “taking into account the favorable conditions of the Berkhovka reservoir.”

So-called Russian military bloggers and other prominent figures in the pro-military media space continue to respond to recent Ukrainian counterattacks with varying degrees of caution and concern.

Many of these milbloggers claimed that the Ukrainian actions around Bakhmut marked the official start of the expected spring counter-offensive, and speculated about where the main efforts of the Defense Forces would be concentrated.

Several prominent Russian figures, however, called for caution and restraint in responding to the counter-offensive, suggesting that some bloggers advocate applying certain lessons they learned from the collapse of the information space during Ukraine’s successful Kharkiv and Kherson counter-offensives.

Ukrainian and American officials have said Ukrainian forces have not yet launched their planned counteroffensive.

ISW Key Findings for May 12:

• As of May 12, Ukrainian forces were making headway northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks.
• Russian so-called military bloggers and other prominent figures in the pro-military media space continue to respond to recent Ukrainian counterattacks with varying degrees of caution and concern.
• Ukrainian and American officials have said Ukrainian forces have not yet launched their planned counteroffensive.
• During the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on May 11, Russian officials proposed a series of internal repression and censorship measures.
• The newly formed “Angry Patriots Club” of former Russian militant Igor Girkin held a press conference on May 12 to discuss his dissatisfaction with Russia’s current handling of the war in Ukraine.
• U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Ruben Brigetti accused South Africa of loading a Russian ship with ammunition and weapons in December 2022, in contradiction to its proclaimed neutral position on the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Defense Ministry tried to divert attention and calm the panic in the information space regarding a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv-Luhansk direction of the front.
• Russian troops continue limited ground attacks in and around Bakhmut.
• Russian sources continue to disseminate information about the preparation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine.
• The occupying troops continue to recruit convicts and create volunteer battalions as part of covert mobilization.
• Russian senior officials claim they are taking active steps to return displaced and illegally deported Ukrainian civilians, including Ukrainian children, to occupied Ukrainian territory.