[한국경제TV 박근아 기자]
Over the past two months, as the government tightened lending, apartment transaction volume in Seoul plummeted, but where transactions occurred, there were still many transactions that rose compared to the previous price.
However, compared to July and August before the loan regulations were implemented, the proportion of upward transactions decreased and the proportion of downward transactions increased.
On the 5th, Real Estate R114 and Yonhap News analyzed the transaction history of Seoul apartments reported to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport’s actual transaction price system, and found that 65% of contracts that were transacted simultaneously in September and October, when loan regulations were implemented, and in July and August, the two preceding months, were under the previous contract. It was a rising transaction that sold for more than the contract price.
Due to the implementation of the 2nd stage stress DSR (Debt Service Ratio) in September and restrictions on lending to existing homeowners by commercial banks, the volume of apartment transactions in Seoul decreased significantly, but the number of actually contracted items was traded upward rather than downward.
However, compared to May and June, the proportion of upward transactions in July and August reached 78%, but in September and October, the proportion of upward transactions decreased by 13 percentage points. Compared to the previous two months, downward transactions, excluding flat transactions, were 21% in July and August, but increased to 33% in September and October.
The non-Gangnam area, which is heavily influenced by loan regulations, had a high proportion of downward transactions, and the Gangnam area, which is relatively less affected by lending, had a high proportion of upward transactions.
In Yongsan-gu, 84% of transactions were upward and only 16% were downward transactions. In Gangnam-gu, upward transactions accounted for 76% and downward transactions accounted for 23% (compared to 1%). In Songpa-gu, Mapo-gu, Jung-gu, and Yangcheon-gu, the proportion of rising transactions in September and October exceeded 70%.
In Gwanak-gu, rising and falling transactions accounted for half each in September and October, and in Jungnang-gu, excluding flat transactions (7%), downward transactions (48%) outnumbered upward transactions (46%).
Geumcheon-gu (43%), Nowon-gu (41%), and Gangseo, Jongno, and Eunpyeong-gu (40%) also had a relatively high proportion of downturns compared to other regions.
The 94.49㎡ exclusive area of Raemian Daechi Palace in Daechi-dong, Gangnam-gu had a sale price in the range of 3.8 billion to 3.9 billion won in July, but the transaction price in September and October rose by about 200 million won to 4 billion to 4.2 billion won.
The exclusive 84.9㎡ unit of Raemian Prugio Complex 1 in Ahyeon-dong, Mapo-gu was sold for 1.84 billion won last July, but was traded at 1.95 billion won, up about 100 million won in the middle of last month.
Jiyeon Kim, senior researcher at Real Estate R114, said, “Transactions have decreased as lending regulations have recently been strengthened, but house prices have not yet fallen in earnest, so it appears that there are still many upward transactions compared to the previous transaction in popular urban areas, including the Gangnam area.”
However, it is unclear whether this atmosphere will continue as commercial banks are raising interest rates on home mortgage loans and jeonse loans to manage household debt.
The representative of a brokerage house in Godeok-dong, Gangdong-gu said, “It appears that the financial sector’s strong lending restrictions will continue until at least this year, and banks are not lowering the real interest rate, so the transaction contraction is expected to continue for the time being.” He added, “It is unlikely that house prices will plummet, but the situation is urgent.” “Homeowners may put their properties up for sale,” he said.
(Photo = Yonhap News)
Reporter Park Geun-ah twilight1093@wowtv.co.kr
