According to Lithuania, it is simple: the blockade is necessary because of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union. Trains carrying coal, metals and building materials are now stopped. Later this year, oil and alcohol, among other things, will no longer be allowed to be brought to Kaliningrad via Lithuania.
The EU also supports Lithuania’s decision. This means that Kaliningrad, which is normally supplied via the Lithuanian rail, is increasingly cut off from Russia.
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Kaliningrad: what exactly is it?
Kaliningrad was called Köningsberg until World War II and was in German hands. It was captured by the Soviet Union army, who were allowed to keep the area. But after the dissolution of the Soviet Union (and the emergence of countries like Belarus and Lithuania), Kaliningrad and Russia were separated by hundreds of miles. A railway was built to supply the area from Russia. The trains can now travel through Belarus, but not all trains are allowed to travel through Lithuania anymore.
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Its location makes Kaliningrad extra vulnerable to sanctions, says Russia correspondent Eva Hartog. “Kaliningrad is actually on the IV with Russia and if something happens to that IV, it will immediately have a major impact on the 400,000 people who live there.”
Strategic importance
According to Rob de Wijk, professor of international relations, this is a nightmare scenario for Russia for several reasons. “Kaliningrad is of great importance to the Russians. It is Russian territory that is coming under attack and therefore Russia must take action now.”
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Hartog also points to the strategic importance of Kaliningrad for Russia. “Military exercises are regularly held in Kaliningrad, again now, with which Russia flexes its muscles towards neighboring countries.” Furthermore, Russia has placed nuclear missiles in the area.
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Gas tap completely closed?
Is Russia going to intervene militarily against Lithuania? De Wijk does not expect that: “Russia does not have that many options militarily, because Lithuania is a NATO country.” When Russia attacks Lithuania, Article 5 of NATO comes into effect: an attack on one member state is an attack on all member states.
This would put Russia at war with NATO (and therefore also the Netherlands), something that, according to De Wijk, they do not want at the moment. “Russia is more likely to want to take a step in economic warfare.”
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De Wijk: “Russia, Europe and America are already completely destroying each other’s economies. The Russians can now take an extra step in this respect by completely shutting off the gas tap to the European Union in retaliation for Lithuania’s action. “
Lithuania on the warpath
The Kremlin will also use the situation to increase tension, our correspondent expects. Hartog: “Putin’s spokesman already called the actions illegal and something that should be taken more seriously.”
Russia says it is currently working on measures that “will have a negative impact on the entire Lithuanian people.” According to De Wijk, the country is already preparing for all possible scenarios.
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De Wijk: “Lithuania is on the warpath. They are really willing to take up arms there against Russia. The country is close to Russia and has the feeling that they are next.”
De Wijk therefore sees the action to block goods as a serious escalation. “If Lithuania itself is going to take up arms against Russia, what are we going to do? We are then drawn into a war against Russia. I have the feeling that we are really on the brink of a war in Europe.”
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‘Supply by sea’
Because of the rail problems, Russia is now said to be planning to supply the Kaliningrad province by sea. It is an option that will probably not be available to the Russians for much longer. When Finland and Sweden join NATO, the entire inland sea around Kaliningrad will be surrounded by NATO countries hostile to Russia.
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