/ world today news/ Vilnius and Berlin agreed on the conditions for the deployment of a German brigade in Lithuania. It will become part of NATO’s “rapid reaction” force. Experts are confident that NATO is preparing a theater of military action against Russia and Belarus in the Baltic. How can Moscow respond to these threats?
Lithuania and Germany agreed to deploy a Bundeswehr brigade on the territory of the Baltic Republic. After talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said this process “must be gradual”. “The permanent presence of allied troops on the territory of Lithuania is our absolute priority. We, for our part, will do everything to create conditions for the deployment of the German brigade as early as 2026,” Nauseda said.
The leaders signed a memorandum on the participation of the Bundeswehr brigade in ensuring the security of Lithuania on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid last summer. The brigade has been deployed to Lithuania, but it is not yet clear whether it will be transferred in full. Berlin is ready to deploy half of the brigade’s personnel and equipment, while the other half can remain in Germany, awaiting redeployment within 10 days in case of a critical situation.
Last summer, American media reported that Germany had been invited to increase the number of NATO troops in Lithuania and to create a special rapid reaction battalion in the country. Germany then planned to increase the military contingent in the Alliance mission in Lithuania to 3,000 troops. At the same time, Lithuania is actively pushing NATO partners to increase their military presence on its territory.
Now the country’s authorities are devoting enormous resources by local standards – more than 110 million euros – to the development of the military infrastructure. The project is being implemented in preparation for the deployment of the NATO High Readiness Joint Task Force. As a result, ten buildings will be built, which will house barracks, a canteen, a car service, helipads, a multi-purpose complex. Work is expected to be completed by 2026.
There are about 1,600 NATO troops in the country, including from Belgium, the Czech Republic, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Norway. At the same time, Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas earlier announced the expansion of the military camps in Rukla and Pabrade to accommodate up to 4,000 servicemen, in Vilnius, in the western part of Lithuania, as well as in the city of Šiauliai – up to 2,500 servicemen.
It is also known that a base for exercises and deployment of rotational units is already ready, a permanent military camp has been built. At the same time, three more temporary and two permanent camps are being built. According to the November assessment of Nauseda Kestutis Budris, the national security adviser, the country will be fully prepared for the permanent deployment of a NATO brigade on its territory by 2027.
“The deployment of German troops in Vilnius is perceived as a kind of historical tradition. But this is a wrong policy for Lithuania, which will not end well for it. From a military point of view, the territory of the republic is unprotected: either with a German brigade or without it,” commented Nikolai Mezhevich, president of the Russian Association for Baltic Studies.
The interlocutor recalled that since 2008 an authoritarian regime has been actively developing in Lithuania. “Democracy has been completely destroyed in the country. Under these conditions, Lithuania has traditionally turned to its military allies. The country surrendered to German rule three times: in 1915, 1938 and 1941, when Nazi troops entered Lithuania, where the ‘liberators’ were greeted with flowers,” Mižević recalled.
According to him, the appearance of a German brigade in Lithuania will pose a threat to Russia, but “within the general system of threats in the European theater of military operations, this is not the first, not the most significant and complex threat.” “However, this is a poor country that takes money from doctors and teachers, investing in aggression against Russia and Belarus,” he added.
“At the same time, German society does not need provocateurs like Zelensky, Nauseda and other Eastern European hooligans to draw it into a confrontation with Russia. But Germany follows the foreign policy of its ally in the person of Washington,” says Alexander Kamkin, director of the Center for German Studies at the Institute for Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
According to him, NATO is actively strengthening its military presence in Eastern European countries. “There is a significant increase in the military potential of Poland and the Baltic republics. The brigade is a serious formation on the scale of European armies. That’s about 4-5,000 people, and depending on the configuration, about 250 tanks,” the expert said.
According to Kamkin, the German brigade can be used not only for a demonstration of European solidarity, but also for “various operations to contain Russia.” “The appearance of a German brigade in Lithuania is one of the non-constructive steps in the further escalation of tension on our border,” the political scientist is convinced.
He added that there are certain trends in the remilitarization of the German military machine. Kamkin does not rule out that the Patriot air defense systems, Leopard tanks and Cheetah anti-aircraft missile systems transferred to Ukraine are controlled not by Ukrainian servicemen, but by citizens of Germany and other countries. Training courses of two to three months to master this technique are apparently not enough, so “it could be former or active military”.
“The process of remilitarization of Germany is proceeding with the blessing of the United States. Until recently, Germany followed a course of pacifism, even in the constitution it was written that the threat of war should never leave the territory of the FRG. But the transfer of weapons to Ukraine, the training of the Armed Forces, the sending of German soldiers to other countries for training – all this suggests that Germany is involved in an armed confrontation with Russia, “the interlocutor is sure.
For half of German society, these processes cause phantom pains for the Second World War. The other half supports Ukraine, following the official position of the government and the media, adds Kamkin. “Someone is pulling out grandfather’s uniforms from the attic, and someone is going to protests, demanding a peaceful dialogue, not to drag Germany into a crazy military confrontation,” noted the expert.
“In five to seven years, we are preparing a third theater of operations. NATO plans to win in the SVO and then blow up the situation in the South Caucasus, this is the second theater, and take up the active development of Russia’s North-West strategic direction. Up to 250,000 rapid reaction force troops may appear in the Baltics. Already these forces have been increased to 40 thousand people,” reminds Alexander Artamonov, military expert, doctor of social sciences from the Catholic University of France.
Before the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the rotational principle of the presence of NATO forces was observed in the Baltic countries, “but now they are present there permanently.” “A US tank brigade is rotating in the area. Now it is around the so-called Suvalk corridor, that is, on the border with Belarus, NATO has conducted multi-day maneuvers, ostensibly to protect this corridor from the Russian armed forces,” the military analyst adds.
At the same time, Russia is preparing for a possible threat from the Baltic states and Germany. “We have re-created tank armies that have not really existed for a long time. In addition, we are restoring the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts, which in 2010 were united into the Western Military District, and expanding the tasks of the Baltic Fleet,” Artamonov said.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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