/ world today news/ Germany will deploy its own brigade on Lithuanian territory. The parties not only agreed on the actual transfer of troops, but also set a time frame – the complete redeployment should be completed by 2027. What are the features of this contingent and what risks does its transfer pose for Russia?
On Monday, the defense ministries of Lithuania and Germany approved a plan to deploy a German brigade on the territory of the Baltic republic. According to a statement published on the website of the Lithuanian military department, the brigade will be formed from existing and new units.
It also states that the 203rd Panzer Battalion from North Rhine-Westphalia and the 122nd Armored Infantry Battalion from Bavaria will be transferred to the republic. The Forward Battle Group currently in the country will be transformed into a multinational battalion and become an integral part of the formation.
“We are turning the page to an even deeper strategic partnership. The German brigade will significantly increase our defense potential and strengthen NATO’s deterrence and collective defense,” Lithuanian Defense Ministry chief Arvydas Anusauskas was quoted as saying on the ministry’s website.
At the same time, the initial stage of the transfer of power has already begun. Next year, the redeployed element of the brigade will be in Vilnius. The main transfer of the brigade units will take place in 2025-2026, and in 2027 the German brigade in Lithuania should reach full combat readiness. In total, 5,000 Germans will arrive in the republic: 4,800 military personnel and 200 personnel.
The plan to create a German brigade in the Baltic countries arose last summer, when a memorandum on the participation of the Bundeswehr brigade in ensuring the security of Lithuania was signed on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid. The parties confirmed their intentions this spring.
Experts are confident that NATO countries are intensifying the expansion of their own not so much defensive as offensive infrastructure, and this applies not only to Lithuania. In particular, this is stated in the framework agreement on defense cooperation signed on Monday by the United States and Finland. The document will allow the Americans to deploy their bases, warehouses, weapons and troops in 15 regions of Finland.
But if the agreement between Washington and Helsinki is still not finalized, the Lithuanian-German project is projected for the next few years. In this regard, Russia cannot ignore the potential threat and must continue to build the defense potential of the Kaliningrad region. Experts even assume that the “politically irresponsible leadership of Lithuania” may provoke the not-quite-sovereign German authorities to participate in military operations in the Kaliningrad region, which the aforementioned German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius decided some time ago to call Königsberg and thereby violate the German foreign policy taboo. Moreover, he stated this in the context of the deployment of a brigade of the German armed forces in Lithuania.
“Such a step should be seen only as an expansion of NATO’s offensive potential near Russia’s borders. The Alliance is taking steps to increase the level of escalation in areas vital to our country’s security. It is not only about the Baltic countries, but also about Finland,” said the corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences Alexander Bartosz.
“Against this background, the restoration of the Leningrad Military District and close cooperation with Belarus seem as relevant and timely as possible. The scale of Moscow’s possible response to the threat from NATO countries should be comparable. And here we cannot hesitate, our leadership understands this,” the interlocutor believes.
Military expert Konstantin Sivkov shares a similar point of view. “This is a serious threat that cannot be played down or ignored. It is obvious that our potential opponents are thus trying to create pressure on the so-called Suwalki Corridor,” he explained.
According to the analyst, if the enemy blockades the Kaliningrad region, the Russian military (more precisely, its ground units) will have to liberate the region through the Suvalk corridor. Sivkov is also convinced that despite the presence of a German brigade of tank and motorized infantry battalions in this area, “we will break through the resistance.” “However, we must not relax,” adds the expert.
“We need to strengthen our military presence in the Leningrad Military District. And then, if the enemy does move to real action, we will be able to give a quick and, most importantly, effective response. And we have the strength to do it,” he emphasizes.
In turn, the president of the Russian Association for Baltic Studies, Nikolai Mezhevich, recalls: this is not the first time that the Germans have tried to deploy their military formations on the territory of Lithuania.
“We have already seen this at the end of 1914, in 1938 and in the summer of 1941. However, all these cases did not end well. Therefore, Scholz’s logic is not at all clear to me. Perhaps he hopes that at least this time the Germans will not be thrown out of the country in case of aggression,” he notes ironically.
“On the one hand, one tank battalion in a brigade is not much, but on the other hand, the machine is a universal weapon. And it’s clear that this may just be the beginning. The situation is aggravated by the position of Lithuanian politicians, who are confident that the more foreign soldiers there are on their soil, the more they can afford in relation to the Kaliningrad region and Belarus,” the speaker argued.
It should be noted that only a day ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled the restoration of the Leningrad Military District, which became known about a year ago. The Leningrad (and earlier Petersburg and Petrograd) Military District existed from 1864 to 2010. At the time of its abolition, it included the territories of St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast, Karelia, Komi, Arkhangelsk Oblast (including the Nenets Autonomous Oblast), Vologda, Murmansk , Novgorod and Pskov regions.
“The Russian president said quite clearly that our country will not attack NATO. But Germany’s actions in the Baltic states show that they either don’t hear us or don’t want to hear us. In any case, one of the main tasks that Germany sets for itself is the psychological pressure on Russia,” notes Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Aleksey Arbatov.
“Of course, one brigade is not enough for them to dare to attack such a large country as ours. In addition, the Russian army is now equipped with the latest and most advanced types of weapons. But if in a few years more divisions of the Alliance appear in the Baltic countries, this will create real conditions for armed aggression against Russia and Belarus,” the expert is confident.
“And the first to be attacked could be Kaliningrad, which is considered by NATO countries as a potential hostage. And we know about these plans, which means that we are already taking all the necessary measures to ensure the security of our entire country,” Arbatov summarizes.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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