Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) moved lower in trading this week, amid a surge in Covid-19 cases that ‘haunted’ Asia. Foreign investors also sell their shares on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
During the week, the JCI fell 0.52% on a basis point-to-point. In weekend trading, the JCI had to settle for being evicted from the 6,100 level.
The purchase of shares by foreign investors this week was Rp. 14.35 trillion. However, foreign investors sold more at Rp 15.39 trillion. Thus, foreign investors made a net sale of Rp 1.04 trillion.
The frequency of stock trading this week is 7.14 million times involving 95.35 billion units of shares worth Rp 64.54 trillion. The total trading frequency of all instruments is 7.34 million times involving 107.89 billion assets with a value of Rp 64.98 trillion.
Meanwhile, the rupiah exchange rate against the United States (US) dollar moved higher this week. Capital inflows, especially in the government bond market, have become the capital of the motherland’s currency.
Throughout this week, the rupiah strengthened 0.21% against the currency of Uncle Sam’s country in general point-to-point. The US dollar was pushed further below Rp. 14,500.
Domestically, the strengthening of the rupiah was supported by capital inflows in the financial market. In the stock market, investors do record a net sell (net sell) of more than IDR 1 trillion but not so in the government bond market.
As of July 27, 2021, foreign ownership in Government Securities (SBN) is IDR 965.56 trillion. An increase of Rp 2.79 trillion compared to the previous week’s position.
Market Sentiment Next Week
From within the country, investors will continue to observe the development of the Covid-19 case in the country, which is still not fully under control as the Level 4 Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) will end on Monday (2/8) tomorrow.
President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) once said that if there is a downward trend in cases, it is not impossible that there will be an easing of the PPKM after 2 August. However, until now there has been no decision regarding whether the PPKM is continued or relaxed.
Although the trend of adding Covid-19 cases has tended to decline in the last few days, the number is still in the range of 30,000-40,000 cases. The Covid-19 death rate is also still high, with an average of over 1,500 cases per day.
The good news is, during this week, the number of recovered cases of Covid-19 exceeded the addition of new cases.
The latest, today, Sunday (1/8/2021) there were 30,738 new cases of Covid-19. With this, the total cases are 3,440,396 cases.
This achievement is still better than Saturday (31/7) which amounted to 37,284 new cases.
The patient’s recovery is very encouraging. Today there are 39,446 patients who have recovered from Covid-19. This brings the total number of recovered COVID-19 patients in Indonesia to 2,809,538.
Active cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia recorded a decline of 10,312 today. This brings the total number of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia down to 535,135 people.
The number of deaths is still quite high, reaching 1,604 cases. This brings the total number of Covid-19 patients who died to reach 95,723 people.
In addition to sentiment regarding the Covid-19 case, on Monday (2/8), The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will release RI inflation data per July 2021.
Indonesia’s inflation rate in July 2021 is estimated to be very slow, almost flat. It seems that the policy for the Implementation of Restrictions on Community Activities (PPKM) has eaten a ‘victim’, namely sluggish demand.
Collected market consensus CNBC Indonesia estimates inflation of 0.01% on a monthly basis (month-to-month/mtm). Meanwhile, compared to July 2020 (year-on-year/yoy), the inflation rate is estimated at 1.45%. Then core inflation ‘forecast’ 1.35% yoy.
Bank Indonesia (BI) in the Price Monitoring Survey (SPH) until week IV predicts inflation in July 2021 at 0.01% mtm. Thus, inflation throughout 2021 or calendar year (year-to-date/ytd) will be 0.75% and annual inflation will be 1.45%.
Next, on Thursday (5/8), there will be a release of data on gross domestic income (GDP) of the Republic of Indonesia in the second quarter of this year. Tradingeconomics forecast that the Indonesian economy will grow 3% on a monthly basis and 7% on a yoy basis. Meanwhile, according to Bank Permata’s SVP Economist Josua Pardede, Indonesia’s GDP per the second quarter of 2021 will be in the range of 6% to 6.5% on an annual basis.
Previously, BPS noted that Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2021 contracted minus 0.96% on a quarterly basis and minus 0.74% yoy.
On Friday (6/8), Bank Indonesia (BI) will release statistical data foreign exchange reserves (cadev) Indonesia as of July 2021. Just so you know, BI reported that the June cadev jumped by US$ 700 million, to US$ 137.1 billion. Analysts predict RI’s cadev in July will again increase to US$ 138 billion.
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