Everyone understands, the confinement will last a long time but it is now necessary to establish an exit strategy, identifying the best conditions to protect against a second wave more violent than the first.
While the President of the Republic should announce new measures during an address, Monday, April 13, the team of Vittoria Colizza and Pierre-Yves Boëlle (Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, Inserm and Sorbonne University Medicine ) evaluated the impact in Ile-de-France of this system implemented on March 17 at the national level and the potential effectiveness of various interventions thanks to a model that it developed.
Posted on Sunday April 12, this work “Does not constitute an attempt at prediction but presents an evaluation of the effects of different scenarios, taking into account the type of more or less restrictive measures and the moment when they would be appliedsays Vittoria Colizza. We tested theoretical hypotheses in this period when collective immunity was insufficient. “
Maintaining social distancing
It appears that containment should not be lifted at best until May, or even at the end of May or in June. It could only intervene when it would be possible to apply large-scale aggressive measures of identification by tests of people carrying the virus and their contacts in order to isolate them, and to maintain a social distancing with establishments. schools closed and elderly people in isolation.
Integrating age profile data and social contacts in Ile-de-France, the modeling of transmission in this region has three objectives: to assess the epidemic situation, to assess the expected impact of the confinement put in place on March 17 and estimate the effectiveness of different possible exit strategies. The model was adjusted according to the numbers of hospitalizations in the region before the start of confinement and was validated on clinical and virological surveillance data, including those of the epidemic in Italy, in order to distinguish different levels severity from asymptomatic to severe form.
Several types of social distancing interventions and of duration for these were simulated, varying the hypotheses: for example different proportions of people teleworking or infected individuals reducing the number of their contacts.
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