Libya: To what extent can warlords become peacemakers?

Rashid Khashana – Those meeting in Tripoli stressed that the dialogue should be intra-Libyan, that foreign intervention should be rejected, and commitment to everything that resulted from the dialogue between the military and security leaders with the 5+5 Joint Military Committee.

Under the title “The United States Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability” in countries witnessing conflicts, US President Joe Biden referred a law to Congress for adoption and implementation, which includes new plans to prevent wars and establish stability, including six countries, including Libya. The initiative, whose implementation extends over ten years, indicates the growing American interest in changing the situation in Libya, towards ending the civil war and laying the foundation for an elected national government, capable of governing, providing services, and maintaining security throughout the country. The plan includes five pilot programs aimed at integrating all aspects of foreign assistance into one coherent strategy, aimed at achieving stability in countries at risk, before crises break out.
Although the initiative came days after the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf to Libya, it is certain that it was not the result of that visit, but rather the American official came to the region to explain it to the Libyan leaders and mobilize support for them. Its implementation will depend on local efforts to reduce violence in the south of the country, as the basis for a long-term effort aimed at supporting the building of a democratic system and a stable future. It can be said that southern Libya (the Fezzan region) has been out of government control for years, and armed groups have exploited the absence of the state there to tighten their grip on the region and bargain with the central government.
The law seeks to change the situation of conflict countries, allocating about $200 million annually over the implementation of the strategy, the duration of which was set at ten years, in five programs. These pilot programs aim to integrate all aspects of foreign assistance into one coherent strategy, with the aim of achieving stability in countries at risk, before crises break out there.

Consecutive visits

The Americans are working to compete with Russia, their first rival in Libya, with their ten-year plan. In parallel with the successive visits of American officials to Libya, most notably William Burns, director of the CIA, the Russians intend to strengthen their presence in Libya, by reopening the Russian embassy in Tripoli, and naming the Musta’rab Aydar Rashidovich as a new ambassador extraordinary, with residence in Tripoli, where it intends to The Russian diplomatic mission has resumed full work, in addition to reopening the Consulate General in Benghazi. The Russian Chargé d’Affairs to Libya has been residing in Tunisia until now.
The Americans achieved an economic advantage over their rivals, after the Libyan company, Zullaf, concluded its first contract with the American consortium, Honeywell – UOP, to establish a gas refinery in the southern region, worth 600 million euros.
Based on the terms of the contract, the American group will undertake to complete the preliminary engineering work for the refining units and grant technical licenses to the licensed units. The project consists of two phases, the first for which the contract was signed, while the second is currently the focus of negotiations to carry out the installation work and final tests of the refinery. The realization of such investment projects in the future will be supported by the political role that America has begun to play on the Libyan scene, whether through the UN mission or through direct bilateral relations, especially after the launch of the implementation of the “Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability.”
To realize the influence that America has on the Libyan conflict, it is sufficient to recall that American officials, political and military, did not dare to visit Libya, for years, after the killing of American Ambassador Peter Stephens in his country’s consulate in Benghazi in 2012. The meetings related to Libya took place in Algeria or Tunisia. When the American administration wanted in 2011 to respond to the threats of the Al-Qaeda network in Libya by launching campaigns against its hideouts in the region, it resorted to holding meetings in Algeria, with the participation of senior American security and military officials concerned with the war on terrorism.
As for the economic level, it is likely that conditions will improve this year, according to International Monetary Fund estimates, which are estimates based on consultations conducted recently by the Fund’s consultation mission with Libya, which expected hydrocarbon production to grow by about 15 percent, after increasing the volume of production from 1 million barrels per day last year to about 1.2 million barrels this year.
In a parallel line of consultations with the IMF mission, the Libyans recently discussed with Nader Abdul Latif Muhammad, Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank, the files of the water and sanitation sector, diversifying the Libyan economy, and finding other alternatives, in addition to oil revenues. The relative stability that Libya has experienced since the signing of the ceasefire agreement in October 2020 will help work to reconstruct the affected cities and areas and begin repairing the infrastructure of the oil and gas sectors, which negatively affects the volume of production.
This economic trend coincides with important developments on the political level, most notably the frequent talk about the evacuation of Wagner forces from the three air bases it controls in Libya, which is the strategic Al-Jufra base in the center of the country, where Russian MiG-29 fighters are stationed, and the Brak Al-Shatt base. Air Force Base and Tamanhint, near Sebha, the capital of Fezzan Province.

Deportation decision

Although Italian media sources confirmed that Wagner mercenaries are still in Libya, this does not negate that the decision to deport them has been taken. CIA Director William Burns pressured the military commander of the eastern region, Khalifa Haftar, to withdraw Russian mercenaries from Libya. Then US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara I. Leaf brought the issue up again to Haftar. It is likely that it obtained his approval for the withdrawal, with the condition that balance be maintained, which means that the forces defending Tripoli do not outnumber and ammunition the forces led by Haftar and his sons. It will be very important for the two opposing parties to build on the results of the meetings of military leaders from the East and West, last Sunday in Tripoli, under the auspices of the UN envoy Abdullah Bathily, within the framework of the 5+5 committee after they held a first meeting in Tunisia. Most importantly, they reached several points of agreement, which they included in a joint statement, and decided to hold the next meeting in Benghazi. When these military leaders move, it is an indication that the political leaders, who have decision-making power, agree to that reconciliation option. In other words, the recommendation of retired Major General Khalifa Haftar to discuss unifying the military institution is evidence of his weakness compared to his previous extremist positions. One of the most important items mentioned in the high-level security meeting was the agreement to continue working on unifying the two military institutions through the chiefs of staff, in addition to unifying the two security institutions.

Nine points

Moreover, those meeting in Tripoli stressed nine points, the most prominent of which is that the dialogue be Libyan-Libyan, and that foreign intervention be rejected, in addition to full commitment to everything that resulted from the dialogue between the military and security leaders with the 5+5 Joint Military Committee in its first meetings in Tunisia. The second is in Tripoli, as we mentioned earlier.
In a complementary move on this axis, UN envoy Bathily embarked on a first-of-its-kind tour of the countries of the region, to agree with them to withdraw their forces from Libya. In the years of chaos and collapse of state institutions, hordes of mercenaries took control of the border areas. Bathily’s current tour includes Sudan, Chad and Niger. There is no doubt that the success of the UN envoy’s mission, coupled with the expected progress in unifying the military establishment, will enable the withdrawal of foreign forces and the gradual restoration of Libya’s sovereignty over its vast territory, given the vast borders. Bathily heard from officials in the countries he toured, in preparation to support the coordinated withdrawal of all foreign fighters and their reintegration into the regular forces, as he said in a post on his Twitter account.
On a related level, it was noted that the Moscow-Benghazi line has resumed operation after the exchange of visits between Russian officials on the one hand and the military and civilian leaders in the eastern region on the other hand stopped for a while. It was reported in Benghazi that a delegation from the Libyan House of Representatives visited Moscow and met with Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who is considered the architect of Russian policy in the Middle East and North Africa. The background of the American-Russian competition in this race is not hidden, as each party seeks to establish a firm footing in the southern Mediterranean region. The content of the talks held by the Libyan delegation headed by Hadi Al-Saghir, Second Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, was not revealed. But it is likely that it touched on the issue of withdrawing Russian Wagner members from Libya, in addition to the investment projects that Russian groups can implement in Libya, especially in the construction and infrastructure sectors. A delegation of Russian companies visited Tripoli last year and secured several deals mainly related to reconstruction and construction projects.
The visit of the parliamentary delegation to Moscow came in a climate of dangerous accusations leveled by United Nations investigators against employees and senior leaders in the security services and armed bodies, of committing mass crimes that could be classified as war crimes or crimes against humanity. Some of them are participating in the 5+5 meetings. From here come the questions that are frequently asked these days, about the extent to which warlords are able to become peacemakers?

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