Libya: Caveats in implementing the Bathily plan

Rashid Khashana – The visit of ambassadors and special envoys to Dabaiba, at the Council of Ministers headquarters, and confirming their strong support for the Bathily plan, is a clear message to Dabaiba, who criticized that plan, that there is no alternative to it currently.

Two delegations from the Civil Society Commission in Libya failed to reach an agreement to reconstitute the commission and unify its western wings in Tripoli, and its eastern wings in Benghazi. Officials from both sides concluded two-day meetings in Tunisia, under the supervision of the United Nations, without reaching a result that would restore unity to the Commission. This is an example of the difficulties facing the implementation of the road map prepared by the UN envoy to Libya, Abdullah Bathily, to reach the elections, which he presented to the Security Council in New York on February 27. Although international parties, led by America, urged the enactment of a new law on civil society, Al-Dabaiba ordered the current members to continue in their positions, without clarifying a ceiling for that temporary role. During her meetings in Tripoli and Benghazi, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf stressed the necessity of quickly adopting a modern civil society law, inspired by international best practices, to replace Law 19.
It is clear that the major countries influential in the Libyan file agreed to support Bathily’s plan, as was confirmed by the joint statement of the ambassadors and envoys of the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, which was published through the official Twitter accounts of the five embassies. The ambassadors asked the Libyan leaders to “make the necessary concessions to hold the elections, so that the Libyan people can achieve their aspirations in choosing their leaders.” Such a frank position would put moral pressure on Al-Dabaiba, Haftar, and Aguila Saleh, who are working to postpone the elections to an indefinite date, in order to remain in their positions.
The visit of the ambassadors and special envoys to the Prime Minister of the Unity Government, Abdul Hamid Dabaiba, at the Council of Ministers headquarters, and the confirmation of their “strong support” for the Bathily plan, is a clear message to Dabaiba, who criticized that plan, that there is no alternative to it currently.
Representatives of the five countries were reported to have stressed, in all their meetings with Libyan leaders, the necessity of making the necessary concessions to move quickly towards putting the elections process on track, “so that the Libyan people can achieve their aspirations in choosing their leaders,” according to what was stated in their statement. From this angle, it will be difficult for the Libyan leaders to engage in an arm-twisting process with the UN envoy, while he enjoys full confidence and strong support for his plan from the Security Council. Therefore, the message that was recently conveyed by the special American ambassador to Libya, Norland, when he visited Al-Dabaiba, was also that local and international efforts should be devoted to holding elections during the current year. Norland realizes that the trio, Haftar, Aguila, and Al-Mishri, oppose holding the elections, and are seeking through various means to thwart efforts to hold them. The matter was no different in the meeting that brought together Al-Dabaiba with the ambassadors of the five major powers influencing the Libyan file.
In a parallel line, an American delegation moved to Benghazi to meet with the leaders of the eastern region, Haftar and Saleh. The delegation was headed by Assistant Secretary of State for Middle Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf and Special Envoy to Libya Richard Norland. This indicates more pressure on the Libyan parties to adhere to the requirements of serious preparation for the elections. This is what can be seen from the statement of the spokesman for the House of Representatives, who said that the focus of the meeting revolved primarily around “stressing the necessity of holding presidential and parliamentary elections.” The most important test of the sincerity of commitment to this path will be the election of members of the joint committee to prepare election laws, as such a step will contribute to acceleration or delay, depending on the positions of the parties.
According to Bathily’s estimates, it will be possible to draw up a clear map for the Libyan elections by mid-June, even if the dispute still exists regarding the conditions for running for the presidential elections, noting that the Speakers of the House of Representatives and the State House previously announced that an agreement had been reached regarding the Constitutional Declaration, and no There was no agreement in reality, but these tricks fell within the framework of an attempt to gain time and cling to the chairs.
This is what made Professor of Political Science at the American University of New England, Dr. Ali Abdul Latif Ahmeida, believe that “the current Libyan elites are the worst opportunism that Libya has produced,” as he said in an interview with the newspaper “Libya Al-Mustaqbal,” describing these elites as “selfish and unscrupulous.” Dr. Ahmeida warned that Libya would become forgotten if the current situation continued for another decade and the “corrupt leaders” did not disappear, which is the fate that Somalia has reached.
The words said by UN envoy Bathily are considered not far from this position, as he was charged with the House of Representatives and the State House, because they were able to finish preparing the laws and ratify them before referring them to the Election Commission, according to him. He did not hesitate to direct harsher criticism at the two chambers, especially the House of Representatives, reminding that its term had expired, and that its members must “present themselves to the people again to request renewed confidence in them.” The head of the Supreme Council of State, Khaled Al-Mishri, quoted Bathily as saying that the latter does not mind giving the military an opportunity to run in the presidential elections, and this means that Major General Khalifa Haftar and his sons will not change their position, and will not make room for the emergence of a new leadership that will rebuild the state institutions there.
Bathily’s initiative, which he communicated directly to his Libyan contacts, aims to enable presidential and legislative elections to be held during the current year. In this context, it is intended to form a high-level steering committee. This proposed mechanism will work to bring together the various concerned Libyan parties, including representatives of political entities, the most prominent political figures and tribal leaders, civil society organizations, active security parties, and representatives of women and youth, according to what the UN envoy himself said. In addition to facilitating the adoption of a legal framework and a binding timetable for holding elections in 2023, the proposed committee will be a platform for moving forward, by consensus on relevant matters, such as securing elections, and adopting a code of honor for all candidates. However, many regional experts are uncomfortable with considering elections alone as a lifeboat for ending the conflict in Libya. The content of the dialogue that took place in this regard between a high-level delegation of Libyan officials and parliamentarians, which visited Washington last week, to mobilize support for the election process, and American officials on the other hand, is not known. The American magazine Foreign Policy questioned the feasibility of the elections, stressing that they are “misleading, because they will not fix political instability and corruption.” However, officially, the fifteen members of the Security Council adopted the Bathily Initiative, which is based on holding elections, and nothing but elections.

Warnings… Warnings
Some caveats cannot be overlooked when talking about implementing the Bathily Initiative. The trend towards forming a high-level steering committee consisting of various components may fuel conflicts and hinder the implementation of the initiative, as happened to the comprehensive conference, which former UN envoy Ghassan Salamé sought to hold in the city of Ghadames. 2019 and was thwarted by the advance of Major General Haftar’s forces on the capital, Tripoli, on April 4.
So it is clear that Bathily went too far in his optimism that a political solution to the crisis would soon be found, based on the plan he presented to the Security Council. But the question that arises in this case is related to effectiveness. Will creating a committee, in light of the bitter experiences with committees that die before they see the light, be the magic method to impose a political solution? This committee, which resembles Noah’s Ark, will carry within it contradictions and conflicts, both known and hidden, between political leaders, tribal notables, modernist elites, and fundamentalist movements, which will explode when sensitive issues are raised, such as the distribution of natural resources, and the choice between the federal and unitary systems.
It is likely that some of Bathily’s positions had a negative impact on some Libyan leaders, especially when he denied the House of Representatives and the State the right to dispose of the electoral process, as he said, “The elections should not be left in the hands of the House of Representatives and the State alone,” criticizing their slowness in preparing the constitutional basis. Moreover, Bathily stated that the period on which the members of the two chambers were elected has ended, and that they must present themselves to the people again, considering this issue to be moral and political at the same time. It seems that Bathley will find American support in implementing his plan, which is confirmed by the statements of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, which indicate that Washington is actively working to resume its diplomatic presence in Libya, without specifying a time for reopening the American embassy in Tripoli.

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