An increase in the retirement age seems inevitable due to the aging of the population and the increasing rate of life expectancy
The actuarial study that accompanied the 2020 Brutsi law for the pension left no room for doubt. Now there is also the ominous validation from Eurostat’s projections. The retirement age limits (from 2022 it is 62 years for early and full with 40 years of work and 67 for the other categories of workers) should be extended and start approaching 70 years. The reason is twofold: on the one hand, the aging of the population, on the other, the increase in life expectancy in the Western world and in Greece.
In fact, Eurostat has very recently issued its guidelines for the European states (2024 Aging Report) and especially for Greece it requests until 2030 the general limit of 67 years to be increased by 18 months – therefore it considers that it should now be established as a general limit retirement age of 68.5. On the other hand, in relation to the special limit regarding early retirements with a reduced pensionable salary and full retirements at 40 years, it is proposed to be extended by 15 months and reach 63.5 years.
The actuarial visualization of Eurostat researchers shows that in 2050 the general age limit in our country should reach 70.5 years. Accordingly, early retirements with a reduced pension should rise to 65.5. If they are extended, demographic projections call for the age limits to reach 72.5 in 2070 and 67.5 with early retirement.
The legislation has been ready since 2011
If the current legislation were applied, the general retirement limit should have been increased from 67 to 68 years from 1.1.2024. Already in 2011 with article 11 of Law 3863 (competent minister Andreas Loverdos) it has been defined that from 1.1.2024 the retirement age limits are redefined according to the change in the life expectancy of the country’s population every three years. The subsequent “saviors” of the insurance system, on the one hand Giorgos Katrougalos in 2015 (third memorandum, n. 4336) and in 2016 (n. 4387), on the other in 2020 Yiannis Vroutsis (n. 4670), did not dare to abolish this provision in force since 2011, although they argued that the continuous reductions in the replacement rate in relation to the premiums paid saved the insurance for the next 50 years.
It becomes obvious that the requirement of the Loverdos law that was not abolished by the “saviors” Katrougalos (4387/2016) and Vroutsis (4670/2020) did not apply and therefore we do not have a pension from 67 to 68 from January 1 of this year. But what “saved” the system? The cause lies in the pandemic or rather in the criminal omissions of Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Vassilis Kikilia, Sotiris Tsiodras who did not strengthen the NHS and ICUs from 2020, with the result that 37,089 deaths due to Sars-CoV-2 have been recorded. To understand, in the period 1960-2021 in Greece a significant increase in life expectancy has been recorded by 8.2 years. Every decade life expectancy extended by one and a half to two years, while a negative change was recorded in 2020 and 2021, when Greeks lost a year and a half of life expectancy.
Despite the temporary arrest of the growth rate in life expectancy for the years 2020 and 2021, it is constantly increasing, while at the same time the wages of the working population are falling. As a result, the insurance system also loses revenue – another criminal version of the eight-hour grace period of the Hatzidakis law. At the same time, births are decreasing, so the Greek population is aging rapidly, which means more retirees with fewer workers.
What the studies have predicted and what they haven’t
All this has been reflected in the actuarial study that accompanied the Vroutsi insurance reform in 2020 (law 4670). Actuarial projections then showed that in the New Year of 2024 the age limits should be increased to 68 years and in 2066 they should reach 72 years. The recent, somewhat more optimistic demographic projections of Eurostat are also similar (they give a pension of 72.5 in 2070, instead of 2066).
However, what have the actuaries and researchers of ELSTAT not predicted? The development of technology, the improvement of the health services provided and the introduction of new innovative treatments that rapidly increase the expectation. Therefore, according to the data included in the latest IOBE study for the field of medicine, an increase in the percentage of the population over the age of 65 is expected from 22.9% in 2022 to 33.5% in 2060. So already the actuaries of G. Vroutsis have been out for almost six years.
However, this is where the health factor comes into play. Always according to IOBE and based on data from ELSTAT, the percentage of the population aged 16 and over with a chronic health problem is increasing from 2018 until 2022, reaching 24.9%. About three out of ten women (27%) and two out of ten men (22.6%) declare a chronic problem or chronic condition. Therefore the working population is being reduced by illness – some will also receive disability pensions – at the same time as pensioners as a percentage of the population are increasing dramatically. With all this, those who deal with the issue of retirement age limits believe that the “retirement at 72” will come at least 15 years earlier and probably in 2050.
Read also: Tsakloglou suggests ala Japanese: Managers should work in supermarkets to get a pension! (Video)
Pension-gratuity to the self-employed with debts to EFKA
Pensioners: A resounding message to the Mitsotakis government – “Substantial increases, immediate measures against punctuality” (Photos)
The pensioners are on the streets again – Anger at the “crumbs” of the Mitsotakis government
At 72 out of 67 the age limit for pension
#Lets #full #speed #retirement
