Rome, 23 November 2024 – The shocks of the Ukrainian war are arriving more powerful, louder. They are approaching Central Europewhich multiplies efforts at every level to prepare for the possibility of a widening of the conflict. A scenario in front of which the Old Continent, and the Germany in the first place he doesn’t want to be caught unprepared. Fear today takes the form of a secret dossier drawn up by the German armed forcesa thousand pages that outline in detail both the military and logistical measures to be implemented in the event of an attack or even just a provocation by Russia along the borders of Ukraine.
Russian firepower
It is the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that reveals the existence of the document, which is also addressed to German companies: not only does it list all the infrastructures and buildings to be defended as a matter of priority, not only are the port protection measures indicated, electricity grids and bridges in a ‘critical’ position, but the ‘Operationsplan Deutschland’ (this is the name of the report) also contains the action plan in the case of a deterrence initiative in the face of a maneuver by Russian forces “on the eastern flank” of NATO. Faz notes: “Germany would in this case become a sorting center for tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of soldiers, who will have to be transferred to the east, together with war material, food and medicines.”
No, it is no coincidence that the document came to light a few days after the publication of the new Russian nuclear doctrine and just while Vladimir Putin pulls his Oreshnik hypersonic missile out of the hatcapable, according to him, “of striking the whole of Europe”. And it is a fact that meetings at the highest levels are multiplying in European capitals and NATO headquarters to try to understand what the level of the threat is.
Again quoted by Faz, it is Bundeswehr lieutenant colonel Jörn Plischke who underlines Germany’s military disparity compared to Russia, “which currently builds 25 tanks a month, compared to the three that come out of German factories”.
The intelligence services, meanwhile, record an increase in drone flights, of cyber-attacks and acts of sabotage. Hence the request to companies to create emergency plans including the activation of autonomous generators and wind farms in case the electricity grids fail. Meanwhile, European chancelleries are also taking note of the Swedish initiative to send its citizens five million booklets full of practical advice for dealing with crises such as natural disasters, cyber attacks and, indeed, wars. To date, the booklet had only been distributed five times in Swedish history: the last time in 2018, the first time at the height of the Cold War, i.e. in 1961, the year of the construction of the Berlin Wall.
Of course, the moving variables on the war scenario have increased considerably with the re-election of Donald Trump. It is in this light that it should be read the meeting in Florida between the president-elect and the secretary general of NATOMark Rutte. The two spoke of the “global security issues facing the Alliance.” What moved the secretary general – in addition to fears that the US could drastically cut military aid to Kiev – was also the news of the sending of contingents from North Korea to Russia. “What we see more and more is that Pyongyang, Iran, China and Russia are working together against Ukraine,” Rutte said a few days ago. Here: in the same hours as Rutte’s visit to Palm Beach, and just as Volodymyr Zelensky says he is “open to seeing Trump’s proposals” on a possible peace plan, the Pentagon warns that the North Korean troops stationed in Kursk “will be able soon be involved in the fighting.”
This is while wartime seismographs record the Swedish navy’s detection of “ship movements that correspond in time and space” to the rupture of two submarine cables in the Baltic Sea. According to maritime traffic data, a Chinese vessel, the Yi-Peng 3, was sailing in the area at the time. Berlin has no doubts: “It’s hybrid warfare.”
**Considering Russia’s emphasis on hybrid warfare tactics, as evidenced by the alleged Chinese involvement in Baltic Sea communications, and the potential for miscalculation amidst heightened nuclear tensions, what concrete steps can NATO take to deter Russian aggression while minimizing the risk of accidental escalation?**
## World Today News Interview: Europe on Edge – The Specter of Widening Conflict
**Welcome to World Today News. Today we have the privilege of discussing the escalating tensions in Europe with two distinguished guests. Dr. Anna Petrovna is a leading expert on Russian foreign policy, and Colonel Richard Thompson is a retired military strategist specializing in European security. Welcome to both of you.**
**Section 1: The German Response – Preparedness and Perception**
* Dr. Petrovna, the article highlights a secret German military dossier outlining plans for a potential Russian escalation. What does this document tell us about Germany’s current perception of the threat from Russia, and how credible do you find Germany’s assessment?
* Colonel Thompson, this dossier details plans for both military and logistical preparations. Could you elaborate on the significance of these measures, particularly the focus on infrastructure defense and the mobilization of troops and resources?
**Section 2: The Nuclear Factor - The Impact of Russia’s New Doctrine**
* Dr. Petrovna, the article mentions Russia’s new nuclear doctrine. How does this new doctrine heighten concerns in Europe, and how might it impact Russia’s calculations regarding further escalation?
* Colonel Thompson, in light of Russia’s nuclear capabilities and the potential for miscalculation, what are the key challenges posed by this new doctrine, and how should NATO respond?
**Section 3: The Trump Factor – Implications for Transatlantic Security**
* Dr. Petrovna, Donald Trump’s re-election raises questions about the future of US support for Ukraine. What are the implications of Trump’s return for the transatlantic security architecture, and how might this impact the dynamic between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO?
* Colonel Thompson, what are your thoughts on the meeting between Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte? What key issues might have dominated their conversation, and what are the potential implications for the future of NATO strategy in relation to the Ukraine conflict?
**Section 4: The Broader Security Landscape – Hybrid Warfare and Alliances**
* Dr. Petrovna, the article highlights incidents involving alleged Chinese involvement in disrupting Baltic Sea communications. How does this incident fit into the broader context of hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia and its allies?
* Colonel Thompson, how should European nations, including Germany, adapt their strategies to counter hybrid warfare tactics, especially in light of growing cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea?
**Concluding Remarks:**
* We’ve covered a vast and complex set of issues today, highlighting the growing anxieties surrounding the potential for a wider conflict in Europe. Dr. Petrovna and Colonel Thompson, thank you for providing your valuable insights and perspectives on these critical matters. As tensions rise, open dialog and a commitment to diplomacy remain paramount for averting catastrophe.
