While the media’s attention is focused on the north of Ukraine, where there is a fight for the Russian Kursk region, the Russian advance continues in the Donbass, which is not so grateful to the media. But that doesn’t mean it’s not important. Specifically, Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) mentions this city, which is located 56 kilometers from Donetsk and had a population of 60 thousand before the war, in its August 17 analysis. “The Russian military appears to be trying to maintain its offensive pressure in the Donetsk region, especially the offensive operation to occupy Pokrovsk,” the institute reports, adding: “However, the fact that Russian forces prioritize an offensive operation on Pokrovsk does not mean that Ukraine must decide to prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk over efforts elsewhere.”
ISW claims that Russian attempts to capture Chasov Yar or push Ukrainian forces out of the eastern bank of the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast are operationally significant. “But Russian forces are instead increasingly prioritizing efforts to seize Pokrovskoe and advance west and southwest of Donetsk, an objective of relatively minor operational importance,” he writes. In the next part of the analysis, he interprets the progress towards Pokrovsk as symbolic of the Russian positional approach to the war of attrition, when they advance slowly but surely.
“ISW also considers the assessment of the operational significance of a possible Russian occupation of Pokrovsko to be premature given the possibility that Russian offensive operations throughout the Donetsk region will culminate in the coming weeks and months at yet-to-be-determined positions. The operational importance of Pokrovskoe will likely depend on Russia’s ability to use the city’s capture in wider maneuvers in Donetsk Oblast, which will be extremely difficult for Russian forces if offensive operations in other parts of Donetsk Oblast peak and in the absence of large operational reserves. It also remains unclear whether Russian forces will be able to occupy Pokrovsk before the Russian forces on this section of the front peak,” the institute postpones the assessment of the significance of the eventual capture of the city and downplays it tentatively.
Their analysis was then evaluated by American veteran Michael Lokesson: “It was only a matter of time: Pokrovsk is not operationally significant according to ISW.” But Kursk creates ‘operational and strategic pressure’ on Russia. Even Ukrainian propaganda is less manipulative than these clowns.”
It was only a matter of time: Pokrovsk is not operationally significant, according to ISW. But Kursk is creating “operational and strategic pressure” on Russia.
Ukrainian propaganda is less manipulative than these clowns.— Michael Lokesson (@MichaelLokesson) August 18, 2024
The significance of Pokrovsk is described by amateur historians and military analysts from the Russians With Attitude podcast, especially given that two of the three defense lines around the city have already been breached.
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“Pokrovsk is located in the west of Donbas, on the M30 highway. Donbass is often depicted as the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, but this is not correct – the Donetsk coal basin stretches all the way to Pavlograd in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The M30 highway connects Donetsk with Pokrovsk, Pavlograd and Dnepropetrovsk; it is also the main route from Kyiv to Donetsk. It is the central supply artery for all supplies going to the Ukrainian forces in Donbass (there is also M03 from Kharkiv, but it is less convenient and has always been secondary, especially for the southern half of Donbass),” they describe.
And they continue: “When Pokrovsk was further from the front line, it represented a perfect operational base for the AFU (armed forces of Ukraine – editor’s note) in Donbass, capable of quickly supplying Ukrainian troops near Donetsk, Gorlovka and Artemovsk/Bakhmut.” It has a perfect connection with the strategic rear of the AFU in Pavlograd (you may remember the various Russian raids on the railway infrastructure in Pavlograd).”
But Pokrovsk is no longer an operational base, it is already a tactical base and in a moment it can become a front line. “There is nothing a hundred kilometers west of Pokrovsko. Empty steppes until you hit Pavlograd in the northwest and Zaporozhye in the southwest. There are various operations that the Russian forces could carry out after the capture of Pokrovskoe, we will look at them later when that happens. What is important, however, is that the Russian group ‘Center’ will open up its operational space and gain freedom of movement,” historians assess.
And they add that Pokrovsk is not only a highway junction, but also a railway junction. It is on one of the railway transport arteries that can supply the territory of Slovjansk/Kramatorsk. “Control over it would unlock this entire railway junction for Russia,” they point out. According to Ukrainian sources residents have already been given instructions to evacuate the city within two weeks.
With the frontline inching ever closer and two of the three defensive lines in front of the city having been broken through, let’s talk about the importance of Pokrovsk.
Pokrovsk is located in the western Donbass, on the M30 highway. The Donbass is often depicted as the… pic.twitter.com/YwEFI3tWyF
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) August 18, 2024
In the comments, it was said that after the fall of the “key” towns of Bachmut and Avdějevka, he is no longer in the mood for such analyses. “Bakhmut crippled the AFU and exhausted the ‘counter-offensive’ in advance, Avdeyevka created the operational crisis they are in now, including enabling the advance on Pokrovsk via Ocheretino,” answered the analysts.
Bakhmut crippled the AFU and bled the “counteroffensive” dry in advance, Avdeevka created the operational crisis they’re in right now, including allowing for the advance on Pokrovsk through Ocheretino.
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) August 19, 2024
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