(Original title: French pension reform protests intensify, Macron’s government will face a vote of no confidence)
News from the Financial Association on March 20 (edited by Bian Chun)Late last week, French President Emmanuel Macron bypassed parliament and forced through a pension reform plan that was widely opposed by the public.Macron’s government could face a vote of no confidence as early as Monday as discontent mounts among the public and among French opposition lawmakers.
Pension reform is an important political issue of French President Emmanuel Macron. The French government announced the retirement system reform plan on January 10. It plans to increase the retirement age from the current 62 to 64 by 2030 in order to reduce the size of the pension system. Spending gap. According to the new plan, starting from 2027, only French people who have worked for 43 years are eligible to receive a full pension.
The French parliament has been debating the pension reform bill for six weeks, but the bill is still struggling to get enough votes from lawmakers. To speed up the legislative process, Macron’s government decided on Thursday to use Article 49.3 of the constitution, which allows laws to be passed without a vote.
Macron’s government has defended the pension reform, saying it is necessary for fiscal stability. Without reform, the state pension deficit could soar to 0.8% of annual economic output over the next decade, according to France’s Pension Advisory Council.
Motion of no confidence expected to succeed
If the no-confidence motion wins a majority, which is unlikely to happen, the French pension reform bill will be repealed and Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne will have to resign. At that point, Macron will have to appoint a new government, or he can dissolve the National Assembly and call for early elections.
For now, the most likely scenario is that a no-confidence motion will fail the French parliament, as it would require the support of every member of the opposition party and more than half of the 60 conservative Republican members of the National Assembly.
French Republican leader Eric Ciotti said last week his party would not support a no-confidence vote.
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told media over the weekend that the no-confidence motion would not receive a majority in parliament, but it would be a crucial moment for the government.
Protests intensify
Although the French government is likely to “survive” Monday’s no-confidence vote, the crisis it faces continues.
Macron’s use of provisions of the French constitution to push for pension reform has exacerbated already tense tensions and weighed on his approval ratings.
Although Article 49.3 is a legal tool that has been used many times, many believe that Macron is acting against the will of the people because the pension reform was opposed by the overwhelming majority of the people and failed to get enough votes in parliament. support.
Smaller demonstrations continue across France, with union groups planning more nationwide protests on March 23.
French police arrested 169 people on Saturday night. Earlier, protesters threw Molotov cocktails at security forces and set piles of rubbish on fire. The rubbish has been piling up in many cities for two weeks as garbage collectors went on strike against pension reforms.
Macron’s approval rating fell to its lowest level since the “yellow vest” anti-government protests in early 2019, according to a poll conducted for the Sunday newspaper by pollster Ifop.
According to the above-mentioned survey, 28% of respondents said they were satisfied with Macron’s performance, down 4 percentage points from a month ago.
Pension reform legislation may face delays
It is worth noting that even if the French government “survives” the no-confidence vote, the opposition still has other options to undermine the pension reform, such as asking the Constitutional Court for a review or holding a referendum, which may make the bill become law. The time was delayed by several months.
Even if the pension reform legislation breaks through the above-mentioned obstacles, the current situation shows that it will be difficult for Macron to cooperate with the National Assembly in the future. That means some of Macron’s agenda – including immigration and employment reform – may be out of reach.
