It’s possible that the most famous annual meteor shower will soon reach its peak: the Leonids. This ultra-fast meteor is scheduled to peak on Saturday morning (November 18).
The Leonid meteor shower is known for producing some of the most spectacular meteor displays in the history of astronomy. The most prominent are meteor storms, such as those that occurred in 1799, 1833, and 1966, when meteor shower rates were observed to reach tens of thousands per hour. More recently, in 1999, 2001 and 2002, the number of meteors observed was smaller – “only” a few thousand meteors per hour.
Unfortunately, the negative impact of the Leonid rains at the turn of the century is that many people are under the impression that they will experience an event similar to the Leonid sky fireworks every year. So, it is important to emphasize here from the outset that any speculation regarding a spectacular Leonid meteorite sighting this year is, to put it mildly, overly optimistic.
So, if you were hoping for a memorable meteor shower display on Saturday morning, we’re sorry to break it to you, but the 2023 version of Leonid will likely be a disappointment, as it will likely be weak and will likely not be the best. for a long time when they didn’t. Check out one of them.
Related: Meteor shower 2023: When is next?
How do you see Leonid this year?
The International Meteorological Organization (IMO) estimates hourly rates ranging from 10 to 15 per hour with a peak around 5:00 UTC on November 18. The moon is a large crescent and will set before 8.30pm on Friday evening and will appear completely undisturbed. But whatever predictions you believe, keep in mind that even under the best conditions, ionides are expected to slide across your line of sight at a rate of once every 3 to 6 minutes. And that’s only assuming you have a wide-open view of the entire sky and are blessed with dark, unpolluted conditions.
Watching a meteor shower is a relatively easy task. It consists of lying on your back, looking up at the sky, and waiting. Keep in mind that light pollution or any obstructions such as tall trees or buildings will reduce your chances of seeing the meteor.
Leo only appeared after midnight, so this was the best time to focus on looking for Leonid. As dawn breaks around 5 a.m. local time, the crescent will rise more than two-thirds of the distance from the southeastern horizon to a point directly overhead (called the zenith of the sky).
Additionally, because their orbits around the Sun are in the opposite direction to Earth’s, ionides collide with our atmosphere almost directly, resulting in the meteorite’s fastest speed: 45 miles (72 km) per second. Such speeds tend to produce bright meteors, which leave long-lasting streaks or streaks of vapor in their wake.
The big Leonid fireballs may be truly awe-inspiring, but these extremely bright meteors are likely too few and far between this year (if at all).
Astrophotographer Jeff Birks captured this shot of the Leonid meteor above a house in New Jersey in 2012. (Image credit: Jeff Burks)
Comet crumbs
The Leonids got their nickname because the shower’s radiant point – where the meteors appear to scatter – is located within the constellation Leo, from within a question mark pattern of stars known as a “crescent”.
These meteors are caused by the periodic comet Tempel-Tuttle which sweeps through the inner solar system once every 33.3 years. Every time a comet passes close to the Sun, it leaves a “river of debris” in its wake. A thick trail of dusty debris. A meteor storm is only possible if Earth records a direct collision with a new dust trail emitted by the comet over the past two centuries.
The “largest part” (no pun intended) of comet dust can be found just behind Tempel-Tuttle. This comet last crossed the inner solar system in 1998. That’s why amazing meteor showers were seen in 1999, 2001, and 2002, and their numbers decreased after that.
In 2016, Temple-Tuttle reached its zenith, the point in its orbit where it can reach its furthest distance from the Sun: 1.84 billion miles (2.96 billion kilometers). Now the comet is on its way back towards the Sun and the inner part of the Solar System and will approach the Sun again in May 2031.
Starry sky over Mount Hora in Mongolia’s Bainguling Autonomous Prefecture, northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, in the early morning of November 17, 2021. (Image credit: Xue Bing/Costfoto/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
A tough year in 2023
But around comets there are also the heaviest concentrations of meteorites found. In contrast, at the point we passed in the comet’s orbit on Saturday morning, all we could see were scattered particles; Fragments of cometary debris that collapsed from a frozen comet nucleus perhaps a thousand or two years ago.
Therefore, Leonid 2023 is expected to show weak activity this year. According to Russia’s leading meteor shower forecasting expert, Mikhail Maslov, Expectations indicate a “moderate” maximum value.which indicates that temperatures will remain at roughly the same level (around 15 per hour) during the period 00:00 to 12:00 UTC on November 18.
Canadian meteor forecasters Margaret Campbell-Brown and Peter Brown, in their 2023 Royal Astronomical Society of Canada Observer’s Guide, are a little more optimistic, suggesting a meteor rate of up to 20 meteors per hour with a maximum occurring at 06:00 UTC on November 18. It reaches around midnight in eastern and central North America.
Looking ahead
The good news is that as Comet Tempel-Tuttle approaches the Sun, the number of leonide ions is expected to slowly increase. According to Mikhail Maslov, it is possible that the number of bright meteors will be greater, especially in 2025. However, this will not happen until 2033, when Maslov and another famous forecaster, Jérémy Faubillion from France, estimate the possible speed of meteors per hour. of several hundred or more. . . However, the best years in the next Leonid cycle will be 2034 and 2035.
In 2034, the debris that fell from Tempel-Tuttle in 1699 will produce between 400 and 1,600 ionides per hour, followed a few hours later by another burst of activity from the material shed by the comet in 1767; There may be 250 to 1,000 leonids. Finally, by 2035, between 300 and 900 ionides could be found from a dusty meteorite impact that occurred in 1633.
But if you can’t wait until then, here’s some good news: An even more powerful meteor shower is coming in less than a month: December’s Geminids, now considered the best meteor shower of the year, produced more than 100 meteor showers. meteor. per hour. It is estimated to reach its peak on Wednesday evening, December 13. Space.com will bring you all the details as we get closer to the date. Keep in touch!
If you want to get a closer look at stars or planets during the new moon or other times, our guide to the best telescopes and binoculars is a good start.
And if you want to take pictures of leonides or the night sky in general, check out our guides on how to photograph meteors and meteor showers, as well as our best cameras for astrophotography and best lenses for astrophotography.
Joe Rao is an instructor and visiting lecturer at New York University Planetarium Hayden. He wrote about astronomy for Journal of Natural HistoryThat Farmer’s Almanac And other publications.
2023-11-18 14:59:29
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