Lender’s insurance coverage: ought to we assessment the ensures in retirement? – Magnolia.fr

Property disaster 2024: costs in present properties are falling

Outdated actual property costs fell once more within the first quarter of 2024 in accordance with information from INSEE and French Notaries. That is the third quarter in a row that values ​​have declined. For the reason that center of 2022, the actual property market has been sinking into disaster, as a result of a drop in demand, itself brought on by the extraordinary improve in lending charges till the start of the yr. The autumn in charges since January has not but produced the anticipated results and we could have to attend till 2025 for the market to begin an actual restoration. Three quarters of falling costs in previous buildings In line with the Notaires-Insee reference index printed final Tuesday, the costs of previous buildings misplaced floor within the first quarter of 2024, exhibiting a decline of -1.6% after – 1.8 % within the fourth quarter of 2023. That is the third interval of decline in a row and over one yr, the decline reached -5.2%. Intimately, the pattern is extra marked for residences than for homes with a respective lower of -5.5% and -4.9%. Because of the variety of the actual property market, the province is doing higher than the Paris area, with a decline over one yr of -4.2%, in comparison with -8.1%. Over one quarter, costs in Île-de-France fell by -2.6%, for the sixth time in a row. Within the provinces, the decline eased slowly over the quarter, to -1.2% after -1.9%. Over one yr, the decline in costs elevated for homes (-4.4% after -3.3%) in addition to for residences (-3.8% after -2.0%). Worth adjustments in present properties (in %): final 3 months 12 months Q3 2023 This fall 2023 Q1 2024 Q3 2023 This fall 2023 Q1 2024 Complete -1.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.8 -3 .9 -5.2 Residences -1.2 -1.9 -5.2 Residences -1.2 -1. 1.5 -2.0 -4.1 -5.5 Homes -1.0 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6 -3 .8 -4.9 Supply Insee Continued lower in actual property gross sales The variety of annual transactions continues to lower. On the finish of March 2024, it was estimated at 822,000, after 869,000 on the finish of December 2023 and 931,000 on the finish of September 2023. on exercise. Gross sales have been below contract since September 2021. The drop is unimaginable, at nearly -32%, with gross sales over twelve months then at 1.2 million. The variety of previous housing transactions amassed over 12 months is similar as the extent seen within the third quarter of 2016 (824,000 gross sales). Gross sales then recovered earlier than struggling a serious downturn because of the Covid disaster, the place it fell again under the million mark. The historic drop in lending charges between spring 2020 and the tip of 2021 resulted in exercise data in 2021 of greater than 1.2 million transactions. Falling lending charges from January 2024 The other is true in the present day. The sharp improve in rates of interest between January 2022 and the tip of 2023 is essentially because of the poor form of the actual property market as a complete. We’ll add, as an apart, that the state of affairs in new building is worse, as gross sales are at their lowest degree since 1995. Charges have elevated 4 hundred in lower than two years, going from 1% on common over 20 years to 4.50% (excluding borrower). insurance coverage and collateral value). The tightening of grant guidelines can be liable for the autumn in the actual property market. By limiting the extent of debt to 35% (mortgage insurance coverage included), whatever the file and with out making an allowance for the remaining life, the regulator removes A lot of households remedy the issue of entry to actual property credit score. The final drop in costs is the mathematical logic in response to rising charges, but it surely comes later. In lots of areas, costs had been and stay unrelated to the extent of family revenue after sharp will increase earlier than and after the well being disaster. The excellent news is that charges have been falling since final January, falling by round 50 to 60 foundation factors. It’s at the moment potential to take out debt over 20 years at an total price of round 3.80%, with prime filers capable of count on a major low cost. Nonetheless, regardless of the drop in costs and charges, consultants don’t count on any restoration within the coming months. Fnaim (Nationwide Actual Property Federation) maintains its forecast of a decline of 800,000 transactions in 2024 and expects the market to stabilize when it comes to quantity within the second half of the yr.

actual property
29/05/2024