Park Seong-min, political consultant
On the afternoon of February 4, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, visited Pyeongsan Village, Habuk-myeon, Yangsan-si, Gyeongsangnam-do and paid a courtesy visit to former President Moon Jae-in. Former President Moon is comforting Lee by pointing to the area where he was attacked./The Democratic Party of Korea
This Democratic Party nomination is strangely bloody and unfamiliar. After democratization in 1987, the nomination crisis that led to the use of the expression ‘massacre’ was largely the responsibility of conservative political parties. 2000 (due to the elimination of nominations of Kim Yun-hwan, Lee Ki-taek, Cho Sun, and Lee Soo-seong) ‘Democratic National Party Incident’, 2008 (triggered by Park Geun-hye’s words, “The people were fooled and I was fooled too”) ‘Pro-Park Alliance’, 2016 (Yoo Seung-min nomination) Both the exclusion and the ‘True Park nomination’ of Representative Kim Moo-sung (which caused the ‘Royal Seal scandal’) occurred in the conservative party.
After the merger of the three parties in 1990, the basic terrain of Korean politics until 2017 was ‘Democratic Liberal Party vs. anti-Democratic Liberal Party’, ‘Grand National Party vs. anti-Grand National Party’, and ‘Saenuri Party vs. anti-Saenuri Party’, with conservative parties This was mainstream and constant. The Democratic Party had no choice but to fight back with the ‘DJP coalition’, ‘unification of Roh Moo-hyun and Chung Mong-joon’, ‘unification of Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo’, and ‘solidarity with progressive parties’. The Democratic Party, which was busy forming solidarity due to its lack of power, had no justification for slaughtering nominations.
The division and fall of conservatives resulting from the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye in 2017 changed the landscape of Korean politics. Now is the era of ‘Democratic Party vs. Anti-Democratic Party’. The Democratic Party is the constant. The 2021 April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election ‘Unification of Oh Se-hoon and Ahn Cheol-soo’, the 2022 presidential election ‘Unification of Yoon Seok-yeol and Ahn Cheol-soo’, and ‘The merger of the People Power Party and the People’s Party’ are scenes that can only be seen in the past Democratic Party. Before 2017, organizations with ‘min’ in their names symbolized the ‘non-mainstream’. ‘Democratic Party’, ‘Korean Confederation of Trade Unions’, ‘Minbyun’, ‘Korea Federation of Korean Arts’, and ‘People’s Union’ are now mainstream.
According to Thomas Carlyle’s keen insight, the world is that it is easy to overcome adversity, but difficult to overcome abundance. The moment something becomes mainstream, a fight over leadership is inevitable. The ‘Seinan War’ that took place after Japan’s Meiji Restoration was a war waged by Saigo Takamori of the Satsuma clan, one of the leading figures of the Meiji Restoration. The United States and the Soviet Union, who fought together against Germany during World War II, fought a ‘Cold War’, and the Chinese Nationalist Party and the Communist Party, who fought together against Japan, fought a ‘civil war’. The time has come for even the full-fledged Democratic Party to divide over the spoils. It’s fate.
Regarding the nomination crisis, Supreme Council member Chung Cheong-rae said, “The Democratic Party inherited its flag and symbol from Kim Dae-jung, Roh Moo-hyun, and Moon Jae-in to Lee Jae-myung. During elections, they claimed to be pro-Roh and pro-Moon by displaying the Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in flags. In the general election four years ago, was there a candidate for the National Assembly who was not a pro-Moon candidate? Didn’t they all get elected to the National Assembly under Moon Jae-in’s name? But Lee Jae-myung directly attacked the duplicity of ‘pro-moon’ by saying, “Why not?” He said, “I am from Nosamo. I loved the people who supported Roh Moo-hyun. He served as the Supreme Council member during the Moon Jae-in administration. While protecting Moon Jae-in, he was disciplined and suffered a cut. “Where have all the politicians who swayed Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in gone at the time?” he said, angering the ‘forces that swayed Lee Jae-myung.’
Jeong Cheong-rae’s anger contains a clear message. While reminding us of the fact that the ‘pro-Moon’ party was responsible for the ‘group lynching’ of Lee Jae-myung during the 2016 Chung Cheong-rae cutoff and the 2018 local election primaries, if the Democratic Party can become ‘Lee Jae-myung’s party’, it may one day become ‘Jung Cheong-rae’s party’. It revealed the meaning that there is. Jeong Cheong-rae’s anger, who has been oppressed by the ‘Seonggol movement’ for over 30 years, is none other than Lee Jae-myung’s anger. This is why this fight is bound to be bloody. The ‘liquidation of the 586 movement’ is being done by Lee Jae-myung, not Han Dong-hoon.
No one can stop the surge towards the ‘Lee Jae-myung Party’ after the defeat in the presidential election. Neither Ban Myung, former leader Lee Nak-yeon, former prime ministers Chung Sye-kyun and Kim Boo-gyeom, party elders like former National Assembly Speaker Moon Hee-sang, floor leader Hong Ik-pyo, former Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan, who is known as a political mentor, or former President Moon Jae-in can stop it. It doesn’t seem like it will stop on its own. Representative Lee Jae-myeong said, “I will not play because I feel like I will lose if I play. This will not be good in the eyes of the people,” and added, “You are free to join the party and you are free to leave the party.” The attitude is ‘if you can do it, do it’.
Does Representative Lee Jae-myung believe that he can win the general election even if he does this? Or do they think that a ‘clear Lee Jae-myung party’ is more important even if they lose? Although they may not be able to secure a majority of seats, they seem confident that one party can do so. The number of people saying that this is a misjudgment is increasing one by one.
A representative example is the column titled ‘Lee Jae-myung is recommended to resign’ that was published in a daily newspaper not long ago. “Jae Myung Lee must resign from his position as leader of the Democratic Party. He is unfit to be a political party leader. (…) While leading the largest party, he decides on major issues alone from the perspective of his own interests, and does not even listen to the advice of the party leadership or even lawmakers who are close to him. (…) All these irrational numbers point the way to defeat in the general election. Would he sense ominous signs too? I can assure you that he is not. In his eyes, all he will see is the elimination of potential party leadership and presidential candidates who are considered his rivals. (…) Lee Jae-myeong is the problem itself, not the solution. He said, “It must happen when no one expects it,” but “what no one expects” will not happen, and the possibility of “ominous signs” becoming a reality is increasing.
Representative Lee Jae-myeong seems to expect that the ‘Yoon Seok-yeol regime judgment’ structure will work again once the nominations are completed and the bracket is completed, but just as Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in’s departure broke up the ‘one team’ and brought defeat, it is difficult to come together again after such a division. . If the Democratic Party’s supporters, who say ‘We cannot give Lee Jae-myung victory’, withdraw from voting, victory in the general election will be difficult. The Democratic Party has experienced this many times. The Democratic Party suffered a crushing defeat when the voter turnout was low at 50.9% in the 2022 local elections, 46.1% in the 2008 general elections, 63.03% in the 2007 presidential elections, 51.6% in the 2006 local elections, and 48.9% in the 2002 local elections. Conservative voters go to the polls regardless of the election situation, but Democratic supporters deserted the polls when the party split.
Even if the Democratic Party loses the majority of seats, if it becomes the largest party in the National Assembly, Representative Lee Jae-myung can silence all criticism. Even if they give up one party in the National Assembly to the People Power Party, they will be able to survive if they win more than 130 seats. However, if the majority of seats are given to the People Power Party and the party fails to win even 120 seats, it will be difficult to withstand the offensive on responsibility. There are only 40 days left until the fateful time.
2024-02-29 07:25:35
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