Lebanon’s Presidential Candidates: Franjieh vs. Azour

Monday, another day. In all its presidential sense. If no emergency arises that would change the dates, to postpone it for an additional day, a series of separate statements will be issued today, Saturday, expressing the adoption of a number of parliamentary blocs and independent representatives, the candidacy of Jihad Azour, to officially move to the presidential arena after the arrival of Michel Moawad, and to join Suleiman Franjieh. .

And the “Nidaa Al-Watan” newspaper stated that during the past hours, the former finance minister continued his contacts with some independent representatives in an attempt to win them over and include them in the axis supporting him, while the agreement was settled between the main blocs, specifically Christianity, to draw a dividing line between the previous stage in which he was president. The “Marada Movement” is the most prominent candidate for the presidency because it is carried on the palms of the French initiative due to its support by the Shiite duo, and is accepted by the Sunni blocs, and is not rejected by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which may allow its name to be removed from the “black lists” … and between the new stage that has become Most likely in a completely different equation.

What is certain is that Monday’s scene would not have easily occurred to one’s mind. For the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, to jump to the shore of an understanding with his opponents against his ally in the “Mar Mikhael understanding.” This is a step that many did not believe he would do. For the eligibility to rule after more than seven months of vacancy, a balance of horror, even if it has a sectarian flavor, for that is a battle, one of the rare times that Parliament witnesses its ferocity.

Developments have shown that the calculations on which the Shiite duo relied to win the presidency of Franjieh have become the subject of a comprehensive review. As the French administration was compelled, not a hero, to brake its impulse, especially since the Saudi involvement in the Lebanese presidential file was not at the level of Paris’s ambitions and desires, so the submissions made by Riyadh came before the candidacy of the head of the “Marada Movement”, without the ability to achieve a qualitative breach in the wall of the objectors. Likewise, the “yield” that the Maronite Patriarch Beshara Al-Rahi returned from Paris and the Vatican was different from the expectations of the two, who believed that the French administration would win the head of the Church to its side, helping it to dismantle the mines of reluctance of the Christian forces.

Even the bet on Bassil’s return to the Mar Mikhael understanding was not in his place, after the latter decided to play it with Sold, especially since his accounts always ended in an inevitable loss when he adorned them with the balance of his support for Suleiman Franjieh. For this reason, it is likely that the duo will reconsider their calculations after the Christian forces fenced off Azour’s candidacy, raising him to the level of Franjieh’s candidacy in the counting of votes.

However, the candidacy of the former finance minister will not go unnoticed. He will cause a series of victims, the most important of which are:

– Most likely it is the end of the “Mar Mikhael” alliance, knowing that Basil still believes that his disqualification of Franjieh’s candidacy will force Hezbollah to reactivate the channels of bilateral dialogue in search of a third candidate that suits its political agenda.

It is also more likely that the nomination will put an end to the October 17 revolution and its slogans of change, and this particular consideration is what makes a number of deputies of this team wary of including their votes with the votes supporting Azour.

– The nomination will overthrow all the slogans and counter-slogans that the Free Patriotic Movement and the Forces used in their electoral battles.

– Once again, the “impossible exoneration” will be slaughtered at the table of Basil’s options, after he slaughtered him the first time when he allied with the “Future Movement”, and here he is liquidating him while recommending Azour’s choice because he was Minister of Finance in an era marred by corruption, according to the description of the “orange book”. But more importantly, it strikes at the credibility of the reformist “Free Patriotic Movement” slogans.

On Monday, the House of Representatives is supposed to have two candidates: the first is prevented from speaking for a functional reason, and the other prefers not to elaborate, so the blocs and the forces supporting them will undertake to fill the political space with pressure positions, each in the direction that suits him. The direction of the forces supporting Azour aims first to open the doors of Parliament, which has been closed since the 11th session.

Thus, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will not be able to delay much, according to his acquaintances, in calling for an election session, the 12th of which will be the rank after the last session was held on January 12. All odds indicate the possibility of an upcoming election session that will be the first official and public “rehearsal” for the duel between Franjieh and Azour, to show the truth about the numbers that each team will be able to achieve.

That is why observers report that the electoral machines moved during the last hours in order to work quickly to attract the hesitant who have not decided their options and the centrists who are wary of joining one front against another, led by the “Democratic Meeting”.

So far, the “meeting” does not find itself in any of the two trenches. He is not willing to confront the Shiite duo, nor to stand in the way of Christian understanding. He prefers to sit on the hill, waiting and anticipating, and armed with the white paper, even though the two parties will not spare him the pressures that will be exerted on him if he calls Berri to a session, in order to move him to the voting booth in favor of one of the two candidates, although all indications indicate that the representatives of the “meeting” will not give up their impartiality as long as Saudi Arabia is still in its opinion not to interfere in the details of the entitlement.

As a result, observers say that the presidential vacancy is likely for a long extension, as long as the filibuster card will be attended quickly, unless a regional factor arises that would shuffle the cards. However, if Lebanon remains in the waiting refrigerator, there is an inherent impossibility to break the state of negative equilibrium that Azour’s candidacy will perpetuate.