Lebanon’s peace gives Israel breathing room

The truce between Israel and Lebanon that took place last night seems to be largely to Israel’s advantage, but it still stands. not all Israel supports him. The reactions are particularly negative in the northern border area.

Regional administrators do not expect residents to want to come home now. They fear that Hezbollah supporters will return to the Lebanese border villages. That is why they prefer a buffer zone of five or ten kilometers. But that restriction will not be lifted.

However, many observers see the deal as a loss for Hezbollah. The group began launching rocket attacks on Israel last year to help Hamas. In this way, Israeli soldiers would have to stay along the border in the north. Soldiers who could not therefore go to Gaza. But that support for Hamas has now stopped.

“These were certainly not easy months for Hezbollah,” Peter Malcontent, assistant professor for international relations at Utrecht University, told NOS.. “If they had to continue fighting, Hezbollah’s situation would not have worsened.”

“You have seen what has been happening almost every day for the past months,” he continues. Hezbollah commanders or commanders are being killed again and again, and weapons caches are blowing up. In the long run, there won’t be much left of Hezbollah.”

Actually, behind the scenes, it was Iran who made the decision to give up the fight at this time. Iran is supporting Hezbollah with weapons and money to put pressure on Israel.

Iran expert Damon Golriz: “Tehran fears Hezbollah would be further weakened and vulnerable to its domestic rivals in Lebanon if the war continues.”

The question remains how long the parties will respect the peace. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned last night: “The length of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon.” If Hezbollah breaks the agreement, we will attack it. .”

For Israel, the truce also means the army can recover. Netanyahu: “We can give our soldiers a breather and replenish our supplies. It is no secret that there are large reserves of weapons and ammunition supplies. We will catch up quickly.”

That breathing space is badly needed, says Peter Malcontent. “Israel has a problem with being able to send enough troops to the front every time. It has to be up to bookies, who sometimes have tour of duty carried out. So it starts to get tight. And then it is a welcome solution if you can say: we don’t need them in Lebanon anymore for a while. “

Israel has never revealed how many troops it has sent to Lebanon. At one time there were five active military divisions. According to military experts, this could be between 10,000 and 20,000 soldiers, but that is a rough estimate.

If the peace holds, Israel will be able to focus more on Gaza and send reservists home, according to military analyst Seth J. Frantzman. “Many conservators were deployed for more than ten months during the thirteen months of the war.” he is reference seven military units of reservists deployed in Lebanon.

An argument that Netanyahu will also use to defend the agreement: “With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is alone. We will now put more pressure on Hamas.”

US President Biden has announced that he also wants a ceasefire in Gaza after Lebanon. But there is much less support for this in Israel. At the same time, America is launching a new arms supply to Israel worth 640 million euros.