Lebanon’s Presidential Election: A Tight race as January 9th Approaches
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Nineteen days before Lebanon’s crucial presidential election on January 9th, the political climate is heating up. Intense pressure is mounting to elect a new president, fueled by reports of American involvement pushing for the candidacy of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun. The race remains fiercely contested, with the outcome far from certain.
While France reportedly favors either Samir Assaf or Ziad Baroud, the question remains: who will secure the necessary 86 votes out of 128 to claim the presidency and the keys to Baabda Palace?
Recent developments include former MP Walid Jumblatt’s nomination of General Joseph Aoun and Suleiman Franjieh, head of the Marada Movement, leaving the door open to his own candidacy, possibly as a compromise candidate if a clear winner doesn’t emerge.
behind-the-scenes negotiations are intensifying, with parliamentary sources describing a slow but meaningful reshuffling of support. “The white threads will not be distinguished from the black except in the corridors and closed rooms of the Council before January 9,” one source revealed.
Nominating General Aoun requires a constitutional amendment, a process demanding significant political bargaining that hasn’t yet concluded. Political sources describe the situation as “blurry,” despite occasional hints of emerging consensus around specific candidates.
Franjieh’s continued candidacy, contingent on agreement on a “balanced” alternative, underscores the uncertainty surrounding the election.Currently, eight candidates are vying for the presidency, including three MPs (Ibrahim Kanaan, Nemat Frem, and Farid Heikal Al-Khazen), three military figures (general Aoun, Major General Elias Al-Bisari, and Brigadier General George Khoury), and two economists (Samir Assaf and Ziad Hayek).
Reports suggest the U.S. administration has shifted its approach, moving from simply wanting to fill the presidential vacancy to actively ”vetoing” candidates deemed unsuitable for Lebanon’s current political landscape. Jumblatt’s endorsement of Aoun is seen as a significant catalyst, potentially triggering a wave of support from other parliamentary blocs.
The election’s outcome hinges on delicate internal power balances and complex regional and international dynamics. Lebanon faces a critical juncture: either a unifying president will be elected, paving the way for national rebuilding, or the country will remain mired in political paralysis and further decline. Political sources suggest that the final week before January 9th will be decisive, determining whether a consensus emerges around General Aoun or if the election remains unresolved, leaving the presidency vacant since October 31, 2022.
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Lebanon on Deadline: Can General Aoun Break the Presidential Impasse?
Lebanon stands on the brink of a pivotal presidential election,scheduled for January 9th. With no clear front-runner and intense political maneuvering behind the scenes, the country faces a crucial decision that will determine its path forward. To shed light on this complex situation, we spoke with Dr. Karim Makdessi, a leading expert on Lebanese politics at the American University of Beirut.
Key Candidates and Shifting Alliances
Senior Editor: Dr. Makdessi, lebanon’s presidential election is shaping up to be a nail-biter. Who are the main candidates, and how have recent developments changed the political landscape?
Dr. Makdessi: The race is indeed fiercely contested. We have several contenders,including army commander General Joseph Aoun,who has recently received the backing of former MP Walid Jumblatt. Then there’s Suleiman Franjieh, head of the Marada Movement. he’s kept his candidacy open and may emerge as a compromise candidate if no clear winner emerges. Additionally, France seems to favor either Samir Assaf or ziad Baroud.
The Jumblatt endorsement of Aoun is significant, potentially swaying other parliamentary blocs towards his candidacy.This reshuffling of alliances is intensifying behind closed doors as we approach the election date.
The US Role and the Constitutional Hurdle
Senior Editor: The article mentions American involvement in the election. Can you elaborate on the U.S. role and its possible influence on the outcome?
Dr. Makdessi: The U.S. administration has been actively involved, shifting from simply wanting the vacancy filled to “vetoing” candidates they deem unsuitable for Lebanon’s current political climate. This approach suggests a desire to ensure a president aligned with their interests and capable of implementing policies that stabilize the country.
however, there’s a significant constitutional hurdle to overcome. Nominating General Aoun requires amending the constitution, which demands considerable political bargaining and consensus building among different factions. This process hasn’t been finalized yet, adding another layer of complexity to the situation.
A Critical Juncture for Lebanon
Senior Editor : What are the potential consequences if Lebanon fails to elect a president by January 9th?
Dr. Makdessi: Lebanon is already facing immense political and economic challenges. The failure to elect a president would further deepen the political paralysis and exacerbate the ongoing crisis.
We’re at a critical juncture. The election’s outcome will determine whether Lebanon can unify under a strong leader who can implement much-needed reforms and steer the country towards recovery. Or, it risks prolonging the current stalemate and descending further into instability. the final week leading up to the election promises to be decisive, potentially revealing whether a consensus emerges around General Aoun or if the presidential seat remains vacant.
