Lebanon Presidential Confrontation: Azour vs Franjieh

It is assumed that at the beginning of next week, the political scene will be completed to launch the presidential confrontation between the leader of the “Marada” movement, former MP Suleiman Franjieh, who is supported by the “opposition” axis, and former minister Jihad Azour, whose candidacy the opposition forces, the “Free Patriotic Movement” and a number of deputies agreed upon. The independents and their fellow deputies belonging to the “Forces of Change”, which opens the door to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s invitation to the deputies to elect the President of the Republic, even if he was slow in setting the date for the session to allow room for the Maronite Patriarch Beshara Al-Rai to dialogue with the main political components concerned with his election in response to the advice he gave. He received it from the Vatican and French President Emmanuel Macron on his recent visits to Rome and Paris.

The completion of the political scene of the parties supporting Azour’s candidacy for the presidency begins, as Asharq Al-Awsat learned from political sources, with a meeting of the opposition forces consisting of the “Lebanese Forces” and “Kataeb” parties and the “National Moderation” bloc, which will be held at the house of Representative Michel Moawad, because of his Symbolic political significance of his involvement in his candidacy.

A number of deputies belonging to the “Forces of Change” may join this meeting, unless they deem it better for them to announce their support for Azour in a separate meeting from the opposition meeting, provided that its date is determined later, as soon as the latter finishes dialogue with them as individuals, but from a distance. His workplace is at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, because there is a need, according to political sources, to drop those who claim not to support him by excluding him from communicating with him.

* Azour Contacts

The same sources revealed that Azour’s communication with the change-making representatives allowed him to register a supportive presence for his candidacy after informing them of his political and economic approach if he was elected president of the republic, and says that some of them’ refusal to support him does not necessarily mean that they will move into the ranks of supporters of his rival, former deputy Franjieh, because this contradicts their aspirations for change. .

And it reveals that the deputies belonging to the “Forces of Change” have not stopped communicating with each other, even from a point of difference in their approach to achieving the presidential election. Perhaps some of them will take the initiative to reconsider their position by joining the ranks of Azour’s supporters.

And she confirms that Azour took the initiative to expand his contacts to include the largest number of independent deputies, including the deputies who are members of the “National Moderation” bloc, and the majority of them are Sunni deputies who are still hesitating in deciding their presidential options and are trying to increase their number by persuading Representative Nima Avram and his colleague in the “Watan Project” Jamil Abboud to join them, in addition to Beirut deputies Nabil Badr and Imad Al-Hout who belong to the “Islamic Group”, although nothing is final until now, because it is not in Avram’s interest to join a parliamentary bloc, as he is currently on the list of candidates for the presidency.

* Basil

On the other hand, he leaves the Free Patriotic Movement, headed by Representative Gebran Bassil, free to announce his intersection with the opposition with the support of Azour, although he hesitates that he may take his time in his official support for him until the positions on the front of the “Democratic Parliamentary Meeting” headed by Taymour Jumblatt become clear. The largest of the independent representatives, especially those who are reluctant until now to disclose their presidential choices.

Therefore, attention remains focused on the position that will be issued by the “Democratic Gathering” in its meeting next Tuesday, as it constitutes the helmsman’s egg in that Azour is close to obtaining 65 votes in the first election cycle, i.e. the absolute majority, this is in the event that he supports him because his name is mentioned in the list that It was proposed by the head of the “Progressive Socialist Party,” Walid Jumblatt, months before his resignation from the party’s presidency, in his meeting with the “Hezbollah” delegation, along with the names of the army commander, General Joseph Aoun, and former deputy Salah Hanin.

Jumblatt did not receive any answer from the party, although he declared it explicitly that there is a need to elect a president for the republic who does not constitute a challenge to any party.

In this context, parliamentary sources affiliated with the opposition say that Azour is currently ahead of his rival Franjieh, and that the support of the “Democratic Meeting” for him will enable him to approach 65 votes if the undecided decide to support him, at least from deputies whose number does not exceed the fingers of the hand.

The question remains about the position that the “Democratic Gathering” will take, especially since it is a subject of internal and international concern so that those concerned with electing the president can build on what is required, although its members, as they confided to the “Middle East”, prefer not to anticipate what will be issued by it and leave the decision. For deliberations between deputies on the basis of not betting on their division.

These deputies confirm that the dialogue is taking place under the roof of not supporting Franjieh and the impossibility of dividing them by distributing their votes to more than one candidate, and they point out that “Jumblatt the father was the first to nominate Azour. We still support him, but we must stop before the sharp division within Parliament, which has begun to be characterized by a sectarian character, specifically between the Christian opposition and the Shiite duo, and they say that the Progressive Party and its parliamentary bloc will not be a party to the sectarian alignments that have reached their peak, and there is a need to agree on a president who does not pose a challenge to anyone. ».

In other words, the “Democratic Gathering” does not deal with Azour as a challenging candidate and prefers to agree on him.

The question remains about how the Shiite duo should behave if it realizes that there is difficulty in electing Franjieh, and if it has – like the others – the ability to disrupt the election of the president by breaking the quorum. Will Hezbollah launch an initiative to save the presidential elections? Or does he continue his approach, which means that the vacuum will be long?