“Lebanon Debate”
The main question posed at the financial level, a few days before the start of the new year, may revolve around the exchange rate of the dollar, specifically unifying the price of the platform’s dollar with the price of the dollar of deposits in banks, and thus, putting an end to the multiplicity of prices that were recorded over the years following the financial collapse in October 2019. Financial and banking expert Ghassan Abu Adhal believes that the first step on the path to unifying the price of the dollar was taken a few days ago by the Central Bank of Lebanon by raising the price of the “exchange” dollar from 85,500 to 500.89 thousand pounds.
In an interview with Lebanon Debate, expert Abu Adhal points out that unifying the exchange rate falls within the old financial plan that is progressing very slowly, and it must be the next step, after raising the price of the platform dollar, so that it becomes parallel to the black market price and moves with it.
However, the most important step remains the dollar of depositors’ withdrawals, or the “old” dollar in banks, and the dollar of corporate and bank budgets, which is still at a price of 15 thousand liras, as Abu Adhal believes that this measure will not be delayed, noting that the dollar of taxes and municipal fees For example, it has recently risen.
Regarding the impact of raising the price of the withdrawal dollar on the exchange rate, Abu Adl did not see a direct impact of this step on the dollar exchange rate on the black market, contrary to what is expected by some, unless speculators try to exploit this reality and return to illegal speculation, stressing. However, the lack of liquidity in the lira in the markets will prevent the dollar exchange rate from rising.
Therefore, Abu Adl believes that the Bank of Lebanon is able to control the black market by determining the amount of liras by reducing the ceiling of withdrawals from banks, as happened in the circular of former governor Riad Salama, who stipulated reducing the ceiling of withdrawals from 5 thousand to 1600 dollars when he raised the price of… Bank dollars, and therefore, the central bank will reduce the ceiling on withdrawals in dollars, which will allow the monetary mass in lira to remain at its current size and will not rise.
But the question raised, according to Abu Adl, addresses the budgets of companies and banks in Lebanon, because that requires raising their capital, and then new funds may enter from abroad in order to increase the companies’ capital.
In general, Abu Adl says that achieving unification of the exchange rate has taken a lot of time, but it is clear that it is close, and it was stipulated in the first place by the International Monetary Fund.
Regarding the date of unifying the exchange rate and canceling the 15,000 dollar, Abu Adl says that the date will be with the approval of the 2024 budget, because the Bank of Lebanon will follow the price of the budget dollar that the banks will follow.
Regarding the launch of the “Bloomberg” platform, Abu Adhal points out that this will not be achieved for about three months, as it will reflect the price of the dollar in the market, and will not work as the “banking” platform did, but rather it will indicate the reality of the exchange market.
2023-12-27 05:13:37
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