The Lebanese are cautiously awaiting the repercussions of efforts to declare a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on the battles taking place on the southern front between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, which to this moment are still witnessing an increasing and dangerous escalation.
Amid intense efforts to bring calm to the Lebanese-Israeli border in parallel with the ceasefire talks in Gaza, the southern Lebanese front flared up on Thursday, and the region witnessed high heat between the two sides.
The expectations of observers in Lebanon, according to private sources for Sky News Arabia, indicate that “the agreement to be implemented, which includes a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, as happened in the agreement last November, may lead to a calm in the exchange of fire on the border front.”
Based on this, the Lebanese hope that this calm will provide an opportunity to resolve pressing internal crises, especially the election of a president for the country.
In light of the repeated Israeli threats, and regarding the tension with the Lebanese Hezbollah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that a solution must be found on the northern border of Israel, where an exchange of fire with Hezbollah forced tens of thousands of Israelis to flee. Flee their homes.
He added that Israel cannot tolerate the presence of about 100,000 displaced people there, and that its enemies know that a solution must be found, whether diplomatic or military.
Will the ceasefire in Gaza be reflected on the southern Lebanon front?
Lebanese writer and political analyst Ali Al-Amin says to Sky News Arabia, “Hezbollah linking the ceasefire on the border with its ceasefire in Gaza is a link that increases its predicament in light of a state of depletion of its capabilities, and of Lebanon and the south in particular. Especially since a number of settlement proposals were presented by capitals.” “Several Western countries, led by Washington, Hezbollah, and Israel.”
Al-Amin added, “Hezbollah is urgently seeking a truce in Gaza, in order to end the ongoing clash with Israel.”
Settlement
Al-Amin revealed the features of a settlement, saying, “Certainly, any announcement of a truce in Gaza will be the beginning of the announcement of an agreement whose framework has been completed, according to the information, and it is based on creating a safe or buffer zone in southern Lebanon extending at least eight kilometers.”
He continues, “The army is deployed in this area with the support of UNIFIL, and there are no military centers or Hezbollah bases there.”
He concludes, “This settlement, and the other provisions it contains, must guarantee long-term stability on the borders of both parties and guarantee the return of displaced Israelis and Lebanese.”
Negotiations proceedings
Political analyst Mounir Al-Rabie, speaking to Sky News Arabia, believes that, “on the edge of detailed negotiations regarding the security and military reality in southern Lebanon, what was said by Israel about the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from the south of the Litani River no longer applies.”
Al-Rabie adds, “No, it is unrealistic for the countries concerned, because Hezbollah members and cadres are from villages and towns, and they cannot be expelled from them, as long as the agreement stipulates the return of residents and people to their homes and towns.”
He continues, “Here the Israelis are talking about the issue of the withdrawal of the ‘Radwan Division’, which will not be possible to differentiate between them and the party’s members. Therefore, the most important thing will be related to withdrawing heavy weapons, hiding them, and keeping them away from the border for more than 10 kilometers. While the Lebanese army will assume responsibility for security in the entire region.” Southern, in coordination with UNIFIL forces.
Hezbollah’s military commander-in-chief survived an Israeli strike
He added, “If UNIFIL forces detect any infiltration or military or armed activity, they will inform the army about the matter so that it can take care of the matter so that a clash does not occur between the emergency forces and the people. The international committee responsible for monitoring the situation will be supervising that.”
Regarding the military and security negotiations, Al-Rabie clarifies and says that the Israelis talked about “stopping military operations, not stopping security operations. In doing so, they wanted to leave room for themselves to carry out any assassination of any leader or cadre in Hezbollah or Hamas. But the Lebanese response was decisive in refusal, The answer is that any operation of this kind will require a violent and strong response, even if this response leads to a war or major escalation.”
2024-02-09 06:35:05
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