“Leaked Documents Reveal Putin’s Strategic Plans for NATO and EU Countries”

For a long time, a group of European and American media have mapped the threat from Russia.

With the help of leaks from Vladimir Putin’s administration in Moscow, they have revealed, among other things, Russia’s plans to take over neighboring Belarus, as well as the strategy behind the ongoing hybrid war against Europe’s poorest country, Moldova.

Now they also reveal for the first time Putin’s strategic plans for NATO and EU countries. This is written by Dagbladet’s Swedish cooperative newspaper, The Expresswhich is among the media in the international collaboration.

Will reduce NATO’s presence

It is in what are described as leaked strategy documents from the Kremlin that Putin’s plans to save his influence in the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are revealed.

The plans are said to have been made by the “Directorate for International Cooperation”, which is part of Putin’s presidential administration and which is connected to the Russian security and intelligence service, writes the newspaper.

The documents, which are from 2021, deal with goals and risks up to 2022, 2025 and 2030 – with an overall goal of reducing NATO’s presence and influence, and strengthening Russian influence and culture.

– Politicians who are loyal to Russia must be sponsored. Associations and organizations that can covertly promote pro-Russian narratives must be created. Russian-speaking students must be invited to Russia and propaganda for Russian culture must be spread. Alleged discrimination against Russian speakers must also be used in the propaganda, is among the methods mentioned in the document, according to Expressen.

In addition, Russia plans to attract the loyalty of powerful people in the Baltic countries through lucrative business contracts.

Expert: – Not surprised

Russia expert and chief researcher at the Defense Research Institute, Kristian Åtland, describes the contents of the documents as “not surprising”.

– The alleged plans fit into a pattern of Russia’s behavior and political goals in the Baltic countries. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been exposed to pressure from the Russian side since they became independent in 1991. The pressure from Russia intensified in 2004, when they became member states of both the EU and NATO. After the war started in Ukraine last year, it has intensified further, says Åtland to Dagbladet.

There are several reasons for this: the Baltics were part of the Soviet Union until 1991, and are therefore considered an “old Soviet territory” with large Russian minorities. In addition, Kaliningrad – a strategically important Russian exclave – is sandwiched between Poland and the Baltic countries.

– But the Baltics are in a different situation than Ukraine, as they are members of both the EU and NATO. This means that Russia’s threshold for the use of military power is very high, and they will therefore have to adopt other and more sophisticated methods to advance their interests, explains Åtland.

He continues:

– The Russian plans outlined in the documents – such as the use of disinformation and propaganda, sponsorship of pro-Russian politicians and lucrative business contracts – are well-known Russian methods. The documents therefore contain no surprising elements, but describe the well-known Russian strategy in plain text.

– Is it likely that Russia will achieve the goals of reducing NATO’s presence and influence in these areas?

– I do not believe. NATO’s view of – and position in – the Baltics will not change. NATO’s position in the Baltic Sea region has actually been greatly strengthened over the past year. Finland has recently become a member of the alliance, and Sweden will probably become one in the relatively near future. This is obviously in the interests of the Baltic countries. NATO is much stronger now than before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Spy chief: – Upcoming battles will be decisive

– A threat

The prime ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been given access to the contents of the leaked documents. But even if the authorities in the Baltic countries take the situation seriously, they do not seem to be surprised by Russia’s alleged plans.

– Estonia, our allies and partners have long been aware of Russia’s interest in using such tactics to achieve its goals and try to assert its influence in other countries. It is Russia’s classic game, many of their tactics are taken directly from the KGB, says Estonia’s Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas – and refers to the Russian plans as a threat to democracy.

Heller even Krišjānis Kariņš, Prime Minister of Latvia, is surprised.

– It is no surprise that the Kremlin is trying to attack democracies by trying to undermine the integrity of elections, use corruption as a weapon, spread disinformation and undermine unity among allies. We know our neighbour, he says to Expressen.