Hristo Ivanov predicts disintegration of the coalition, Iva Miteva called it “more sensitive”
The Reds do not believe in running until the local elections
Early parliamentary elections are almost inevitable and there are two horizons for them – in the summer or possibly in the late autumn of this year. This summary was made to “Trud” by political scientists and sociologists, whom “Trud” asked for comment on the stability of the four-party coalition in power. “It is logical that the early parliamentary elections should be held by the end of the year, because there are many problems for which there is still no solution,” political psychologist Prof. Antoaneta Hristova told Trud. “There will definitely be parliamentary elections. I am not a fortune teller, but this is my feeling “, announced Hristo Ivanov in his report during the national conference of” Yes, Bulgaria “, where he retained his position as chairman.
Clarifying that the union “Democratic Bulgaria” will not seek deliberate disintegration of the coalition, Ivanov summed up that “it is very complex and contradicts all the laws of normal political logic, except one – the crisis.”
“The coalition is doing well so far. There is still work to be done, it is good to do it before the elections. Experience has shown us that the more frequent the elections, the more the turnout falls, which is not good. It takes a certain period of time for people to believe that good things can happen, “said Hristo Ivanov in absentia about his predictions for the collapse of the management formula Iva Miteva (ITN). In front of Nova TV Miteva added that maybe “Hristo Ivanov is more sensitive”.
At the same time, but before BNT, Veselin Kalanovski assured that “Democratic Bulgaria” will not “shake the boat of this government.”
“We will pursue the goals we have set, but when it comes to such a large-scale coalition, it is difficult to say that it will last a full term,” Kalanowski said.
The BSP has so far refrained from making official comments, but members of the Red Parliamentary Group are also giving a short life to the current governing formula. The Socialists note the growing dissatisfaction with the inconsistency and slow decisions of “We continue to change”, and the option to step down for the local elections in 2023 is already quite unrealistic.
“This governing coalition will not have as much time to work on the trial-and-error system that is being demonstrated,” said the chairmen of red structures in the country. Deputies from the various parliamentary groups made it clear that the Prime Minister Kiril Petkov is finding it increasingly difficult to be a balancer in the relations between the elected officials, the desire for more and more positions of the coalition partners.
Prof. Rumyana Kolarova:
I also allow the restructuring of the majority
Excluding the scenario of disintegration of one of the four parliamentary groups, two conditions are needed to reach early elections – first, economic shocks, in which the cabinet can not find an effective solution and second, a serious and lasting shift in sociological reporting. support for the government.
This means that the PP will lose a significant part of its support and at the same time one of the other three parties will register a serious increase, which will motivate it to go to early elections. Each of the coalition partners has a different weight in the parliamentary majority. That is why they have different potential to provoke early elections. It is clear that if “We continue the change” calls for early elections, they will almost certainly happen.
But if one of the other small partners goes to early elections, the move could simply lead to a restructuring of the parliamentary majority. If the coalition partners want to keep the BSP firm in the coalition, they simply must not allow changes in the electoral legislation. My prediction is that there is a more likely restructuring of the parliamentary majority. This does not mean that a new coalition will be formed, but that another parliamentary group can support the government, even without joining it.
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