Le Drian to Lebanon: A “presidential security” tour without a serious initiative to break the crisis

At a time when “relative calm” continues on the southern front in Lebanon, coinciding with the “truce in Gaza,” with one violation recorded today, Tuesday, when the Israeli occupation army fired a shell that fell on the outskirts of the town of Aita al-Shaab, the presidential movement resumed on the local scene, through… The French presidential envoy to Beirut, Jean-Yves Le Drian, begins his fourth tour in the country.

Last June, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed Le Drian as a special envoy to Lebanon, to help the Lebanese political actors end the prolonged presidential vacancy since October 31, 2022, and for that purpose he undertook three rounds, the last of which was last September. Without recording any serious breach in the crisis wall.

Research on the presidential file has been suspended since the start of the security events on the southern Lebanese border with occupied Palestine between Hezbollah and the Israeli occupation army, on October 8, coinciding with the launch of Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood,” noting that an active movement preceded these developments. Especially from the five countries, Qatar, the United States of America, Egypt, France, and Saudi Arabia, and there was great reliance on him to find a presidential solution.

Le Drian will arrive in Beirut, tomorrow, Wednesday, where he will hold talks with Lebanese officials, primarily dealing with the presidential and security files in Lebanon, after statements made by the French presidential envoy a few days ago, in which he expressed his concern about the political crisis that the country has been experiencing for years, which has become Today, too, it is on the brink of war, in connection with the events taking place on the southern Lebanese border.

Political circles in Lebanon rule out that Le Drian will come up with any presidential initiative, despite their indication that the program and objectives of the visit have not yet been announced and are ambiguous, but at the same time they consider that the security situation in the south will be on the French envoy’s discussions table, along with two basic controversial entitlements, namely the presidency of the republic and the leadership of the country. The army, which in turn has become in danger of vacancy, with the approaching end of the term of the Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on January 10, and the continuation of the political conflict over the option that must be taken to avoid the vacuum, especially between appointing a successor and postponing demobilization.

In this context, a French diplomatic source told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, “Le Drian’s visit falls within the framework of France’s concern for Lebanon’s political and security stability, as they complement each other, as well as the fear of the situation erupting in the country. Therefore, the current delicate circumstances require the concerned parties to reach out to… A consensual solution to elect a president, reactivate political institutions, and restore them to their full powers.”

The source indicates that “the French envoy will urge the actors in Lebanon to put differences aside and come to a rapprochement to end the vacancy and form a new government, and accordingly Parliament will restore its legislative role,” pointing out that “Le Drian will also stress the need for the government to adhere to the resolutions of the UN Security Council, especially Resolution 1701.” Issued in 2006, and coordination must continue between the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Forces in the South (UNIFIL), to maintain stability and calm.”

The source also points out that “Le Drian will confirm France’s support for the military establishment, which today more than ever must be far from political vacancies, differences and conflicts, and neutralized from them.”

Excluding a presidential solution soon

In this context, Michel Moussa, a member of the “Development and Liberation” bloc (headed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah), told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed that Le Drian’s visit tomorrow is a continuation of his three rounds, which dealt with the presidential file and presidential mediation.

Moussa points out that “Le Drian has no clear and final ideas, and we do not know that there is an initiative that he has in hand. Rather, his visit is a resumption of his movement, and perhaps he will find something different with the parties inside, especially in light of the current circumstances, but according to what is clear so far, there is no convergence.” In the political sense of electing a president.”

Moussa believes that “the research will, of course, address the security file and the events in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Lebanon is not isolated from the situation in the region and the talks taking place around it.”

For his part, a member of the “Lebanese Phalange” bloc (headed by MP Sami Gemayel, who opposes Hezbollah), MP Elias Hankash, told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed, “There are two pressing issues in Lebanon, which are the presidency of the republic and the leadership of the army, and we believe that the French are coming to talk.” “about them.”

Hankash believes that, “There is a lot of talk that has begun to be raised about the period after the temporary humanitarian truce in Gaza, and the urgent need to pressure towards electing a president of the republic and neutralizing the army leadership from political tensions, especially in light of the delicate stage that the country is going through.”

He points out that “there is a possibility of causing some kind of breach because the country needs a president of the republic, who is the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. It also needs someone to represent the country in international forums and be a link between the besieged Lebanon and its adventure before the world, and someone who gains the trust of the Lebanese.”

On the other hand, Hankash considers that the presidential scene, in his opinion, is “postponed,” but the active forces must “pressure more so that all parties feel the emergency situation that the country is going through, which requires them to take a step towards the other team, and make the sufficient concessions required to elect a president as quickly as possible, and neutralize the situation.” “Lebanon is far from worse.”

Regarding whether former Minister Jihad Azour is still the candidate of the forces opposing Hezbollah, Hankash says, “There is no doubt that after the recent events, there has been a new chapter of consensus or building common ground between the parties. It may be on Azour or someone else in the party.” Its specifications.

In response to what is being said in some political and media circles about a settlement that may occur with Hezbollah through the southern gate that supports its candidate, head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, for the presidency, Hankash says: “I do not link what is happening in southern Lebanon to strengthening Franjieh’s fortunes, especially since we We do not even know how things will end, but today we are in a place where we must not let any of the regional events and outside the Lebanese borders reflect on us, whether profit or loss, because this is what led the country to ruin. Rather, we must put the higher interest above any other consideration.”

It should be noted that Le Drian, in his last visit, carried French support for Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s proposal for dialogue between the parties before calling for a session to elect a president, but he quickly sensed the opposition forces’ dissatisfaction with this step, only to return and support, upon the conclusion of his tour, the third candidate’s choice.

A political dispute threatens the fate of the army leadership

The Lebanese Army Commander, Joseph Aoun, is considered one of the names with the most advanced presidential chances, especially because of the external support he received. However, there is internal disagreement about him, especially on the part of the head of the “Free Patriotic Movement,” MP Gebran Bassil, who is also considered the most prominent opponent of Aoun’s extension option. As is the case with the Minister of Defense, whom he represents in government, Maurice Slim.

Aoun will be retired next January, but the presidential vacancy and the lack of an authentic government with full powers prevent the appointment of a new army commander.

While Mikati is delaying in calling the Council of Ministers to convene to consider the file from outside the agenda, and putting forward the item of postponing his dismissal until Hezbollah and the Amal Movement decide their position, and they are closer to postponing the dismissal, Berri is waiting to appoint a parliamentary session for an extension for Aoun, preferring that This happens through the government.

The Maronite Patriarch is also considered one of the strongest opponents to appointing a new army commander in light of the presidential vacancy, considering that the solution to this crisis lies in electing a president as quickly as possible.