The Lebanese have almost forgotten that they have been living their lives without a President of the Republic for more than a year, and that regional and international attempts to find a solution to the presidential vacuum and the stagnation of the state are still in place. The ongoing war in Gaza has eliminated all ideas and concerns related to this file, and the developments in Palestine and on the borders have become… The south is everyone’s main concern, so much so that the name of the French presidential envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, charged with following up on the Lebanese presidential file, was forgotten.
Today, this name has reappeared again, and Beirut is welcoming it again, but this time it returns with a new breath, and it is armed with the developments of the war in Gaza to anticipate its repercussions on the Lebanese reality. It is important to stress that no one (at home or abroad) is betting that the election of a president in Lebanon will lead to a regional or local solution, and Le Drian knows well that the Lebanese obstacles are countless, because with the election of a president, the problems of the prime minister and the ministers will emerge, and the problems of appointments will follow. Security, followed by problems of appointments in general and economic, financial and living crises… It is an empty and endless circle, but why was this file brought back to life at this particular time?
According to what informed sources say, what happened is that the Gaza war brought life back to the two-state solution, and succeeded for the first time in causing Western reconsideration in dealing with Israel and its officials after the huge number of human losses among the Palestinians, most of whom were children and women, and even some Jews in the world. They became among the most enthusiastic about reaching a ceasefire. With the emergence of this trend, the sources add, it was necessary to seize the opportunity to bring international and regional viewpoints closer towards Lebanon, and to help put its institutional wheel back into rotation, because if the efforts being made to transform the truce into a ceasefire succeed, the diplomatic and negotiating path will He will be the most prominent and the rate of war will decrease little by little, and then the country must be at the table officially and seriously, even if his presence will be formal in that he will not advance or delay (as some countries do) any settlement that will be agreed upon in advance between the countries concerned. However, this Presence will be important because it gives legitimacy and obliges this country to what the countries will agree upon.
The sources clarify that they have no information about what is being said about the possibility of re-presenting the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, as a candidate who enjoys external support to end the crisis. They stress, on the other hand, that whatever the name of the president, the gain will be moral only for the internal parties because he will follow the established path, and his international positions on Without any value, while the focus and disputes will be on internal positions only on formal issues such as appointments and some measures taken at simple levels of importance. The sources ask: Does anyone actually believe that any new Lebanese president will affect developments and events in the region? Or will it strengthen Lebanon’s position in the previously established scenario?
Therefore, the sources believe that Le Drian’s visit represents a greater incentive, and a suggestion that the foreign password has arrived, and that it is integrated with the Qatari efforts, in light of the great importance that Doha has acquired (and still is) in the developments taking place in the region, as it imposed itself on the scene and it is not easy. That US President Joe Biden mention the Emir of Qatar more than three times within a few days to thank him for his efforts in the truce and prisoner exchange issue. Therefore, Le Drian’s visit will not bring a solution, but it may be the first serious step on the path to a solution.
2023-11-29 01:01:10
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