Asked for real Russia the likelihood of an attack UkraineRaimonds Graube, the former commander of the National Armed Forces (NAF), says that “the situation is 50 against 50” – it is very dangerous and bad. “The concentration of troops, the type of force and the armament show that such an attack is very possible. Only negotiations can change that,” Graube said.
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“Putin has created a kind of hostage situation in which he and the West are hostages. This is a very incomprehensible and interesting geopolitical situation. in a way very confident bluffing that “if you don’t give me back what I want, I’ll do it too [īstenošu ofensīvu]. “,” Graube noted.
“The problem with the Western hostages, on the other hand, is that they realize that Putin really has nowhere to step down and has cornered himself against his people – he has to show some result for domestic political reasons. It doesn’t even have to be a complete victory, but it has to bring something. , “admitted General.
“Russia’s talks with the West in the first half of January will be about what the West will do to concede to Putin so that he can tell his country that ‘yes, we forced the West to confront,'” Graube said.
The escalation of tensions over Russia and Ukraine is also confirmed by the former Latvian Minister of Defense and diplomat Imants Lieģis. He points out that the forthcoming dialogue is positive news.
ASV and Russian officials will meet in security talks January 10 in Geneva. The talks are scheduled to discuss Ukraine and arms control.
“The situation has worsened in recent weeks, but it has come from Russia, which is clear – they are quite hysterically trying to escalate the situation internally and show that Russia is being threatened in some way, and that NATO enlargement was a big mistake – the West deceived them. They are all, of course, lies, as this is part of a hybrid war using misinformation. If we look at the map, they are only 6% of Russia’s border with NATO members. Despite this, the situation has been quite tense, “says Lieģis.
He said that we had to be very vigilant and that NATO should continue its policy of defense and opening up – accordingly, give a unified signal to Russia that NATO members were being defended, and that if anything happened in Ukraine, there would be sanctions. This position was also made very clear at the beginning of December at the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Riga, Lieģis said.
Latvia must be grateful, but vigilant
According to foreign policy researcher Lieģis, tensions on Ukraine’s border affect security throughout the region: Of course, the fact that Latvia is a member of NATO and the EU gives us some security, but at the same time it means that we must be very vigilant and constantly report to the Allies on events beyond our borders. “In the event of an attack, the costs to Russia will significantly outweigh any benefits. This is a manifestation of the deterrence policy,” said Imants Lieģis.
Raimonds Graube takes a similar view: “We must be grateful and happy that we are a member of NATO, because it reduces the risk of being affected in the way Putin is turning against Ukraine. Scenarios like this are not possible for us. Of course, we must not be complacent about being NATO because our neighbor will not change: the neighbor’s rhetoric and desire to return to Soviet Union almost all of Putin ‘s speeches are clearly heard in the territory, and Baltic the region, of course, falls within the thinking territory of Peter the First and the Russian Empire. We must monitor the situation, continue to take care of our own security, “concludes the former NAF commander.
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