Miami.— The new trends of the Latino vote in the United States have taken an unexpected turn. Traditionally, a large majority of Hispanics leaned towards the party that had shown the most support for them: the Democrats, but the 2024 presidential elections come with a more complex and diversified panorama.
In principle, the two most important contenders in this race for the White House: Joe Biden and Donald Trump, do not convince at least half of the voters, who have expressed their disagreement for not opening this race to younger and less powerful politicians. fractured in their public image.
“That would be ideal,” a spokesperson for the Mi Familia Vota foundation tells EL UNIVERSAL. “Renewing presidential blood at this time would be a great decision, but in my opinion both Democrats and Republicans are blinded by this confrontation that seems more personal than of national interest.” [entre Joe Biden y Donald Trump]”, dice.
Televisa-Univision, the most prominent Spanish-language television station in the American Union, released a survey at the end of 2023 in which Biden maintains the leadership in preferences among Hispanic voters, which amounts to 58%, while Trump reported a preference of 31%.
If we consider that in 2020 Biden had 67% of this portion of the vote and Trump registered 29% of this support at the time, “we clearly see how Biden has become more disfigured, because although he is still ahead of Trump [respecto al voto latino nacional]the Republican candidate rose 3% and Biden dropped nine points,” explains Mi Familia Vota.
“It doesn’t seem to me that Trump is attracting more Latino voters; Or rather, Biden has lost followers and Trump has not grown much more than he already had,” comments spokesperson Liliana García, co-founder of Latinas for Trump; She assures that “there is still a way to go until election day and there will be the true results with our active participation.” [el de las hispanas] and we will see the return of Trump to the presidency of this great country.”
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll indicates a less favorable scenario for Biden with respect to Hispanics in a sample market such as Florida. According to a recent survey, Trump has a vote preference of 39% compared to a weakened Biden, with 34%. He additionally points out that 20% of these Hispanic voters will prefer to cast their preference for one of the independent candidates at the ballot box. “Florida has always been Republican-leaning, just as California has always been Democratic-leaning,” he says.
Migrants detained by agents at the border between Texas and Mexico, in Eagle Pass, on January 3. Photo: AP
“Perhaps the difference is that Trump has lost representation among the majority of young voters in Florida and Biden maintains his numbers more or less stable in California.” Héctor Sánchez Barba, one of the senior leaders of Mi Familia Vota, recently declared that “there is a world of difference between the impact that Biden has had on the Latino community compared to Trump.”
He assured that Latinos have a true voice in the White House with Biden; situation that did not exist under Trump’s presidency.
“There are very particular issues that many Latinas [votantes en Estados Unidos] We also defend, such as the right to life, for example, and security on the border,” says García. The above is in reference to the pro-abortion stance of the Democratic Party and the less rigid border policy.
Why does it matter who Latinos prefer? One fact is enough: That group is expected to represent 14.7% of all voters in November 2024, a new high, according to the Pew Research Center.
Among the most relevant concerns that Hispanic communities have within the American Union are inflation, unemployment, gun violence, health and migration, among others. Precisely the Democratic and Republican positions make a big difference among Latino voters. A CBS/YouGov poll revealed that 45% of Hispanic voters believe that under Biden their finances will get worse.
Trump’s numbers among Latinos have improved even despite his openly anti-immigrant speech. Because? One of the sectors in which Trump has improved, according to the Suffolk survey, is that of young people. For them, migration is also viewed with concern, with fear of losing jobs. Some have bought Trump’s speech that those who are arriving are criminals, and they fear losing the security that they enjoy in the United States today.
The weakening of support for Biden among Latino voters has raised alarms in his re-election campaign. Several analysts consulted emphasized the need for greater participation and a message that resonates with the concerns of this sector.
In general terms and according to the Televisa-Univision survey, if the elections were held today, Latinos would favor Biden over Trump, with 58% and 31%, respectively.
Additionally, 87% of Democrats who were surveyed indicated they would vote for Biden, but 9% said they would vote for Trump.
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2024-01-22 14:38:39
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