The massive and emotional inauguration of Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva in Brazil on the first day of the year and the announcement in Colombia of the beginning of a ceasefire with five armed organizations in that country are the news that illuminate the beginning of the year in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Lula assumes the presidency for the third time of a Brazil seriously isolated and affected by the Bolsonaro years. The former union leader now leads a very different country from the one he received in 2003, in his first presidency: economically weakened by inflation and debt, with exponential growth in poverty and inequality, extremely polarized and with a Congress of right, with a lot of influence from Bolsonarism.
“People need to know how we found this country. They have emptied health resources, dismantled education and culture. They destroyed the environment. They have left no resources. They have disorganized the governance of the economy, public funding, support for businesses and entrepreneurs. They squandered state-owned companies and public banks. They handed over the national heritage. They left a disastrous balance sheet,” he assured in his speech at the presidential inauguration ceremony.
For Colombia, hard hit by decades of conflict, the step taken to start 2023 is very significant. “We have agreed a bilateral cessation with the ELN, the Segunda Marquetalia, the Central General Staff, the AGC and the Sierra Nevada Self-Defense Forces from January 1 to June 30, 2023, extendable depending on the progress of the negotiations, he wrote in a tweet the president Gustavo Petro. “Total peace will be a reality,” the president promised.
“This is a brave act. The bilateral ceasefire obliges armed organizations and the state to respect it. There will be a national and international verification mechanism,” the president added in another publication.
They are two testimonials of what the political left and progressivism can bring about change in a Latin America that has experienced in recent years a period of neoliberal restoration at the hands of right-wing governments in the style of Macri, Bolsonaro and Duque.
Lula’s inauguration completes an electoral cycle that has allowed the arrival or reaffirmation of progressive governments in Mexico, Bolivia, Chile, Nicaragua, Colombia, Peru, Honduras and Brazil. Each with its own different characteristics and radicalism, but all with the projection of greater social justice and an inclusive vocation.
They are joined by the governments of Cuba and Venezuela, whose political processes are being held against all odds, despite enormous pressure from Washington.
A) Yes, The major economies of Latin America are governed by leftist parties, which strengthens the possibility of greater regional integration and joint efforts to address the difficult international economic situation and the inevitable US hegemonic plans in the region. These are the two main problems to be addressed in this renaissance of Latin American progressivism.
The new progressive wave occurs in the midst of an economic context that threatens governance and the extension of social programs. An uncertain international backdrop with a combination of factors including economic slowdown, inflation, financial volatility and lower capital flows, has slowed growth in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2022 and will further deepen this downward trend in 2023, it recently predicted. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.
In its new Preliminary Balance of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean report, ECLAC said the region will grow 3.7% in 2022, nearly half of the 6.7% it recorded in 2021; and only 1.3% next year.
If the outlook for next year materialises, it would be the second lost decade since the 1950s, with regional growth modestly 0.9% since 2014. . This was so far the lowest performance since 1951.
Under these circumstances, the resources to pay for the social programs that these nations demand and that governments that have come to power with popular welfare agendas have proposed will be fewer.
Another real danger for progressive governments is that in some cases, such as Brazil, Peru or Chile itself, parliaments are dominated by the right, which seeks to obstruct government plans and sabotage proposals that imply a significant change in the status quo of the rule of the capital government.
The rejection of the new constitution in Chile, the removal of Castillo from the presidency of Peru and the manipulated sentence against Cristina Fernández are signs of the power that conservative forces retain in the region.
Pretensions to strengthen integrationist processes, as the new regional scenario may favor, face the challenge of the purposes of US domination, clearly established in the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy.
The strategy states that no region has a more direct impact on the United States than the Western Hemisphere and says that the United States will continue to build “regional security” by supporting efforts to address both internal threats and organized crime threats, as well as external threats from “malicious actors.” seeking to establish a military or intelligence presence in the region, in clear reference to China and Russia.
China is today the main trading partner of several Latin American economies and has an alliance with CELAC that has deepened in recent years.
Added to this is the role played by the OAS, mandated by Washington, to divide the region and sabotage popular processes in various countries.
Beyond these threats, there is no doubt that there is a promising political correlation in Latin America and the Caribbean, which can get integration processes back on track, strengthen the regional voice and mitigate the harsh impact popular sectors are having on the international economic crisis and the exclusionary policies applied by right-wing governments in the region.
Skill and political will will be decisive in the course of events. The leadership of Lula, López Obrador, Fernández and Petro, together with the strength of the ALBA governments, can make the difference.
(Originally posted in Al Mayadeen)
