The population of Latin America and the Caribbean has evolved less quickly than expected compared to projections established twenty years ago, reaching 663 million inhabitants, or 3.8% less than expected, according to a report published Thursday 28 november.
“Mortality and fertility in the region have fallen from a high level in the 1950s to a low level today,” underlines the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal).
The report revises downwards the projections established in 2000, which estimated that the population would reach 689 million inhabitants this year.
“The decline in fertility is unprecedented,” notes the report, specifying that in the 1950s, women in the region had an average of 5.8 children during their lifetime, compared to 1.8 in 2024.
Fertility among women aged 15 to 19 and 20 to 24 has declined in all countries in the region since the start of the 21st century. But it is in Chile and Costa Rica that the decline is most marked with respective reductions of 91% and 70%.
Women are also increasingly delaying childbearing. In 2000, they were 21 years old on average when their first child was born, compared to 24 years old today. And by 2050, this average age is expected to rise to 28 years.
Alongside the drop in births, the population is aging rapidly, according to the Cepal report. 70 years ago, half of the population was 18 years old, while today the average age is estimated at 31 years old.
## Latin America’s surprise Slowdown: Population Growth Lags Behind Projections
**Falling Fertility Rates and Aging Population Reshape the Region**
A new report from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal) reveals a surprising trend: the region’s population is growing slower than anticipated. Projections made in 2000 estimated a population of 689 million by 2023. However, the latest figures show a total of 663 million inhabitants, representing a 3.8% shortfall.
To delve deeper into this unexpected development, we sat down with Dr. Mariana Rodriguez, a demography expert at the University of Buenos Aires, and Dr.Juan Garcia, a sociologist specializing in latin American families at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Together, they shed light on the dynamics driving this population shift and its potential implications for the future.
### Unprecedented Fertility Decline
**World Today News:** The Cepal report highlights an unprecedented drop in fertility rates across the region. Can you elaborate on this trend?
**Dr. Rodriguez:** Absolutely. In the 1950s, women in Latin America had an average of 5.8 children, while today that number is down to 1.8. this dramatic decrease is primarily driven by increased access to education and family planning resources for women, coupled with changing societal norms around family size.
**world Today News:** Dr. Garcia, how do these changes in family structure impact Latin American societies?
**Dr. Garcia:** Smaller families mean changing social dynamics. We’re seeing a delayed transition to adulthood,with individuals pursuing higher education and establishing careers later in life. This also has consequences for the labour market, with potential implications for economic growth.
### Aging population: A New Challenge
**World Today News:** The report also points to a rapid aging of the Latin American population.What are the challenges and opportunities this presents?
**Dr. Rodriguez:** With life expectancy increasing and fertility declining, we are seeing a larger proportion of older adults. This puts pressure on healthcare systems and social security programs while also creating a potential for a valuable, experienced workforce.
**Dr. Garcia:** It’s crucial to ensure that policies are in place to support an aging population, including accessible healthcare, affordable housing options, and opportunities for continued social engagement.
“This demographic shift requires a discussion on pension reforms, healthcare provision, and potential labor shortages in sectors reliant on younger age groups.” – **Dr. Garcia**
### Implications for the Future
**World Today News:** What does this slower population growth mean for Latin America’s future?
**Dr. Rodriguez:** while a slower growing population can possibly alleviate pressures on resources and infrastructure,it also raises concerns about workforce demographics and economic growth. Governments need to adopt policies that promote sustainable development while addressing the needs of an aging population.
**World Today News:** What advice would you give to policymakers navigating these changes?
**Dr. Garcia:** Invest in education and healthcare, promote women’s economic empowerment, and adapt social security systems to the changing demographics.
**Key Takeaways**
Latin America’s population growth is slowing down significantly due to falling fertility rates and an aging population. This trend presents both challenges and opportunities, requiring proactive policy interventions to ensure a sustainable and prosperous future for the region.
**What are your thoughts on these demographic shifts in Latin America? Share your comments below and join the conversation! **
**For further reading:**
* [The Impact of Demographic Change on Latin American Economies](link to related article)
* [Women’s Empowerment and Fertility Decline: A Global outlook](link to related article)
