As of 15:00 on the 30th (Wednesday), two typhoons, No. 9 (Saora) and No. 11 (Haikui), are occurring around Japan.
Typhoon No. 11 is gradually approaching Okinawa, and it is expected to gradually affect it from tomorrow, the 31st (Thursday). Although the violent Typhoon No. 9 is moving away from the South China Sea, the Sakishima Islands are still affected by the waves, so we cannot let our guard down.
» Latest typhoon information
Typhoon No. 11: Rain and wind tend to intensify on the north side of the center
▼ Typhoon No. 11 Wednesday, August 30, 15:00
Central location Okinotori Island offshore
Size class //
Strength class //
Move northwest west 15 km/h
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed 30 m/s (near the center)
The maximum instantaneous wind speed is 40 m/s
Typhoon No. 11 is moving slowly west-northwest in the sea near Okinotorishima. It will gradually develop and is expected to become a strong force on Friday, September 1, the day after tomorrow, and will be the closest to Okinawa.
Since the pressure difference between Typhoon No. 11 and the Pacific High, which is spreading near Honshu, will increase, a strong wind area is expected to expand northward from the center of the typhoon. Winds are expected to strengthen not only on the main island of Okinawa, which is close to the path of the typhoon, but also in the Amami region. The winds are expected to bring in moist air and bring in more rain.
Even if you are far from the path of a typhoon, you must be vigilant and prepare for typhoons, especially in northern areas.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)
Possible paths are still predictable
Each thin line in this figure represents the simulation result of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. The results (members) obtained in the process of the ensemble forecast method are posted to give an image of the wide range of possible paths.
Since the Pacific High is strengthening from the east of Japan, most of the members tend to move northwest. After that, there are quite a wide range, such as those heading for the East China Sea area through Okinawa, those heading for the Chinese continent, those aiming for the Sea of Japan, and those heading south such as Taiwan instead of Okinawa. Masu.
Not only the course, but also the timing and power predictions are in a situation where the error is quite large. The error is expected to shrink as the days go by, so please pay attention to future information.
Probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon
Prefectural forecast areas with a probability of 3% or more to enter the storm area of Typhoon No. 11 within 5 days are as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Amami region 15 %
Okinawa main island region
Main Island North/Central South 40%
Kerama and Aguni Islands 40 %
Kumejima 38%
Daito Island 7%
Miyakojima region 18 %
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island 8 %
Yonaguni Island 3 %
Typhoon No. 9 Sakishima Islands will still be affected by waves tomorrow
▼ Typhoon No. 9 August 30 (Wednesday) 15:00
Central location Bashi Strait
Size class //
strength class ferocious
Move northwest west 15 km/h
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed 55 m/s (near the center)
The maximum instantaneous wind speed is 75 m/s
Violent Typhoon No. 9 is moving west-northwest through the Bashi Strait at a speed of 15 km/h.
Although the typhoon will gradually recede, the effects of the waves will remain until tomorrow morning, and high waves with 3m swells are expected on Ishigakijima and Yonagunijima. Please do not let your guard down even if the typhoon leaves.
In addition, the area with high waves due to Typhoon No. 11 will expand, so the impact of high waves may be prolonged. It is expected that there will be places where the waves will be high in the Amami region, Kyushu, and Shikoku.
Another typhoon forecast
Regarding the tropical cyclone that occurred in the Marshall Islands, the Japan Meteorological Agency announced that it was “expected to develop into a typhoon within 24 hours.” The next typhoon will be called Typhoon 12.
It is possible that it will approach the Japanese archipelago, so it is necessary to pay attention to its course in the future.
▼Tropical cyclone August 30 (Wednesday) 3:00
Central location Marshall Islands
Move WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed 15 m/s
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 23 m/s
From the Marshall Islands to the Mariana Islands, the monsoon from the west and trade winds from the east converge, called a “monsoon trough.” The monsoon trough has counterclockwise wind circulation, and typhoons are often born in this.
At present, the sea surface temperature in this area is over 30°C, which is warm enough to supply water vapor. Because there is no wind flow, it can be said that the environment suitable for the development of tropical cyclones is in place. Therefore, it is highly likely that this tropical cyclone develops into a typhoon.
After becoming a typhoon, this tropical cyclone is expected to circle around the Pacific high and move northwest, gradually approaching the Japanese archipelago. According to the tropical cyclone information from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the center was in the south of Japan at 3:00 on Monday, September 4, with a central pressure of 998 hPa and a maximum wind speed of 18 m/s near the center, which was not accompanied by a strong wind area. is expected.
Depending on its course after that, it may have an impact on Japan, but there is still an error in the prediction of its course and power. The error is expected to shrink as the days go by, so please pay attention to future information.
» Radar Wind Mode (Windflow)
The fourth typhoon occurred in August this year
With Typhoon No. 9 and No. 10, there were four typhoons in August this year. (*Hurricane 8 is a hurricane coming from the western longitude.)
The average number of typhoons in August is 5.7, which is the time of the year with the most typhoons. The number of typhoons this year is slightly lower than usual, but Weathernews forecasts that there will be at least 10 more typhoons by the end of the year.
As autumn approaches, it is expected that the number of typhoons that affect the Honshu area will increase, so please prepare for typhoons and heavy rains in preparation for the coming season.
A new typhoon No. 11 occurs
Apart from Typhoon No. 9 and Typhoon No. 10, Typhoon No. 11 occurred in the Mariana Islands at 9:00 on the 28th (Monday).
It is expected to move westward and approach the vicinity of Okinawa. At 9:00 on September 1st (Friday), the center is in the south of Okinawa, the central pressure is 980hPa, and the maximum wind speed near the center is expected to be 30m/s.
Depending on its course after that, it may have an impact on Japan, but there is still an error in the forecast. The error is expected to shrink as the days go by, so please pay attention to future information.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode
typhoon name
Typhoon names are prepared in advance by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee”, etc., and are given in order of occurrence.
The name of Typhoon No. 9, “Saola,” was proposed by Vietnam, and refers to an animal called the Vietnamese antelope. The name of Typhoon No. 11, “Haikui,” was proposed by China and comes from the Chinese word for “sea anemone.”
» Radar Typhoon Mode
Reference materials, etc.
2023-08-30 07:02:00
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