The war in Gaza entered its fourth month on Monday. Bombings and fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip continue amid fears of a regional escalation. What now?
Life in the Gaza Strip has become “impossible”, according to the Dutch Red Cross. According to the aid organization, innocent people are the biggest victims of the war. “There is a shortage of everything in Gaza.”
Since the deadly attack by Hamas on October 7, Israel has carried out unprecedented large-scale bombing of the Gaza Strip. At the end of October, Israeli ground forces also entered the area.
According to Hamas’ health ministry, the death toll in the Gaza Strip has now risen to more than 23,000. Most of the population has been displaced and moved south.
Between early October and late December, the United Nations estimates that some 65,000 homes were destroyed and 300,000 homes damaged. According to the Red Cross, 60 percent of the buildings are uninhabitable. Much infrastructure has also been damaged by the bombings, making large parts of the Gaza Strip unliveable.
Israel will focus more on the center and south of Gaza
Recently, Israeli ministers and the army have made several announcements about the progress of the war. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said on Saturday that Hamas’ military structure in the north of the Gaza Strip has been “completely dismantled”. There would only be sporadic fighting in the north with fighters operating without direct orders from the Hamas leadership. Hamas has not yet responded to those claims. Spokesman Daniel Hagari said the IDF will now focus on the center and south of the Gaza Strip.
The IDF previously announced that it would at least temporarily withdraw some of the Israeli troops in the Gaza Strip. Reservists would have to go back to work upon their return, as the economic impact of the war is starting to be felt. Troops should also prepare for a possible new front near the border with Lebanon, where Israel is in conflict with the militant group Hezbollah.
In the short term, the focus of the war appears to be shifting from the north of the Gaza Strip to the center and south. According to Palestinian political analyst Nour Odeh, this means that the situation in the south will become even more dire. About half of the Gaza Strip’s population is now in the southern border city of Rafah, the United Nations said in December. “Every bomb that falls there causes a bloodbath,” Odeh told NU.nl.
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‘You don’t eliminate Hamas with civilian deaths’
And what about the long term? According to Mairav Zonszein, an Israeli-American analyst at Crisis Group, there are two different views within Israel on the purpose and course of the war in the Gaza Strip.
Zonszein tells NU.nl that a rough distinction can be made between statements from the war cabinet, which mainly portrays the war as a battle against Hamas, and the broader cabinet. This also includes far-right ministers such as Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. They openly call for the ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip to make room for Jewish settlers.
But Odeh notes that not only far-right ministers, but also members of the ruling party Likud are calling for complete destruction of the Gaza Strip. One of them is Tally Gotliv, who said that weapons of mass destruction should be used in the Gaza Strip.
In an open letter to the judiciary expressed Israeli public figures raised concerns about “explicit calls to commit heinous crimes against millions of civilians, an everyday occurrence in Israel today.”
“After three months, I think we have mountains of evidence of what is really happening, which is that civilians in the Gaza Strip are being killed one way or another,” Odeh said. “If they don’t die from bombings, then because they cannot be helped with their injuries because the hospitals are being attacked. Or from starvation. You don’t eliminate Hamas by killing aid workers, journalists and academics.”
Plan for after the war
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, a member of the war cabinet, independently presented a plan on Thursday for what should happen in the Gaza Strip after the war. The day-to-day administration should rest with the Palestinians, but Israel wants to retain control over security in the area.
Gallant’s plan is very unclear, Zonszein notes. For example, it is not clear which Palestinian authorities should take over leadership of the Gaza Strip, because Israel still wants to “eradicate” Hamas.
According to Zonszein, it is difficult to estimate what Israel has achieved so far in the Gaza Strip. It looks like an occupation, she says. “The troops that are there now may stay there for a long time, because dismantling Hamas will take a long time.” Several Israeli officials have indicated that the war is likely to last for months, possibly into 2025.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on Saturday that Israel will continue to “eliminate Hamas, bring back our hostages to ensure that Gaza will never be a threat to Israel again. We must put everything aside until we won.”
“After that, Israel wants to maintain control over security,” Zonszein said. According to her, that scenario is very similar to what we are seeing now in the West Bank. “Israeli forces can raid there whenever they want.” According to her, the goal of Israeli policy in the West Bank is clear: “total annexation and control. And on top of that there is violence by settlers, a direct consequence of the policy of the Israeli government.”
Fear of escalation
Meanwhile, concerns are growing about a regional escalation as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon become directly involved in the conflict.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is currently visiting the Middle East to prevent such an escalation. But expectations are not high. According to Zonszein, US President Joe Biden has made it clear that he supports Israel and the war.
According to her, a regional escalation can only be prevented if there is a ceasefire, because otherwise useful negotiations cannot take place. But the United States has so far not backed calls for a ceasefire.
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2024-01-09 04:42:00
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