The Japan Meteorological Agency announced that the tropical cyclone that occurred at 9:00 on September 4 (Monday) is expected to develop into a typhoon within 24 hours. The next typhoon will be called Typhoon 13.
It is expected to approach the Kanto region toward the latter half of this week, and it is possible that the rain will intensify over a wide area, so caution is required.
▼Tropical cyclone September 4th (Monday) 15:00
Central location South of Japan
move northeast slowly
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed 15 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 23 m/s
» Radar Typhoon Mode
Possibility of heavy rain due to autumn rain front and typhoon
It is expected to move north quickly due to the wind blowing at the edge of the Pacific High, and reach the Kanto region around Thursday, July 7 without increasing its strength.
Around the 6th (Wednesday) the day after tomorrow, moist air from the typhoon is expected to flow toward the autumn rain front, and rain clouds are expected to develop over a wide area from western Japan to eastern Japan. You can’t let your guard down even in areas that are far from the path of the typhoon.
Around the 7th (Thursday), the wind and rain will intensify mainly in the Izu Islands, and if the typhoon passes close to land, there is a risk of stormy weather in some parts of the Kanto region. Please be aware of future typhoon movements.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode
» Radar Wind Mode (Windflow)
Reference Results of simulations of paths calculated by meteorological agencies around the world
Each thin line in this figure represents the simulation result of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. The results (members) obtained in the process of the ensemble forecast method are posted to give an image of the wide range of possible paths.
A comparison of these members reveals that although they all tend to move toward the northwest, there are wide variations from those heading toward the East China Sea through the vicinity of Okinawa to those heading northward to the south of Honshu, indicating that there are large variations in course predictions. Masu.
Not only the course, but also the timing and power predictions are in a situation where the error is quite large. The error is expected to shrink as the days go by, so please pay attention to future information.
Probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon
The probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon within 5 days is as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Amami region 3 %
Okinawa main island region
Main Island North/Central South 4%
Kerama and Aguni Islands 3%
Kumejima 3%
Big East Island 4%
Miyakojima region 4 %
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island 4%
Yonaguni Island 2 %
First typhoon in September?
Average number of typhoons
Typhoon No. 13 will be the first typhoon in September. The average number of typhoons in September is 5.0, which is the second most frequent typhoon occurrence after August.The number of typhoons this year is slightly lower than usual, but Weathernews forecasts that there will be at least 10 more typhoons by the end of the year.
September has been the month of many typhoon disasters in the past, so be prepared for typhoons and heavy rains in the future.
» Latest typhoon information
Reference materials, etc.
Meteorological satellite images: NICT-National Institute of Information and Communications Technology
2023-09-04 07:03:00
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