Latest Survey Results: Prabowo Subianto Leads in 2024 Presidential Candidate Poll

Editorial Team, CNBC Indonesia

Monday, 04/09/2023 04:00 WIB

Photo: Election illustration (REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan)

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The National Survey Institute (LSN) released the latest survey results regarding the electability of the three presidential candidates (candidates). General Chairperson of the Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto, still occupies the top position according to the LSN survey results.

The survey, which was released on 1 September 2023, was conducted from 14 to 24 August 2023 in 38 provinces throughout Indonesia. The total sample is 1,420 respondents, obtained through a multistage random sampling technique.

With a margin of error of +/- 2.6%, and at a level of confidence of 95%. Data collection was carried out using telephone interview techniques with respondents by trained personnel with the help or guide of a questionnaire.

Respondents in this survey were initially asked open questions (top of mind). There were a number of names that appeared, but the most spontaneous names mentioned by the respondents were three names, namely Prabowo, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and former DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.

Then, respondents were given closed questions. Respondents were given 12 names of figures, but again Prabowo, Ganjar and Anies received the most votes from respondents.

LSN then asked questions to respondents to find out the electability of Prabowo, Ganjar and Anies. Respondents were asked ‘if the presidential election was currently being held and only the three presidential candidates below were followed, who would you choose?’.

The result, as follows:

Prabowo Subianto 40.7%
Ganjar Pranowo 31.4%
Anies Baswedan 22.1%
Don’t know 5.8%.

“Prabowo’s dominance over his competitors remains significant if the presidential election is only followed by three presidential candidates,” said the Executive Director of LSN, Dr. Gema N Bakry when explaining the release.

Head to Head Prabowo Vs Ganjar
Then, respondents were again asked to choose from the top two names of presidential candidates. As a result, Prabowo Subianto remains superior.

‘If Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo made it to the second round, and the second round of the presidential election was held at this time, who would you vote for?’

Respondents’ answers: Prabowo 53.2% Vs Ganjar 39.1%, undecided 7.7%.

“The very wide electability difference between Prabowo and Ganjar is understandable, considering that the votes for Anies Baswedan’s supporters tend to be Prabowo rather than Ganjar. In other words, if Anies is eliminated in the first round, it is almost certain that the majority of his supporters will vote for Prabowo in the second round,” he said.

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