ANPEa polling station in Bussum.
NOS Nieuws•vandaag, 12:10
Eight weeks before the elections, the Peilingwijzer has formed a top three of parties that have little difference between them: the VVD, Pieter Omtzigt’s NSC and the GroenLinks-PvdA combination. The Polling Guide is a weighted average of the polls Ipsos/EenVandaag in I&O Research.
Shortly after its foundation, NSC was the largest party in the Peilingwijzer with 26 to 32 seats, but has since fallen back somewhat and now stands at 23 to 27. The VVD is at 25 to 29, compared to 22 to 27 in the previous three-week Peilingwijzer past. Just like last time, GroenLinks-PvdA has 22-26 seats.
Tom Louwerse, the creator of the Peilingwijzer, points out that it says little about which party will become the largest. “It is clearly a snapshot. The majority of voters do not yet know what they are going to vote for.”
Differences between polling firms
The research agencies estimate the support for GroenLinks-PvdA differently. At Ipsos/EenVandaag the combination gets 21 seats, well behind VVD and NSC, but at I&O Research it is one of the frontrunners with 29 seats. “Each polling agency makes choices in the research approach, for example in the way they select their panel members,” explains Louwerse explains, “That often leads to fairly comparable figures, but now at GroenLinks-PvdA we see a significant difference.”
Researcher Peter Kanne of I&O Research does not think the difference is that big. According to him, it is within the margins and it is undeniable that the battle for first place is currently between three parties.
Sjoerd van Heck from Ipsos/EenVandaag also qualifies the difference between the two polls. “If you convert it into percentages, GroenLinks-PvdA gets 13 percent for us and 18 percent for I&O. That falls just or not within the margins of error. The difference also reflects the uncertainty among many voters.” Van Heck maintains the conclusion that VVD and NSC are currently fighting for the leading position, but certainly does not rule out that GroenLinks-PvdA will ultimately become the largest party.
Satisfied and dissatisfied right-wing voters
Louwerse says it is striking that the VVD does not seem to be bothered by Omtzigt. “The VVD has to rely on (reasonably) satisfied right-wing voters, while NSC and BBB are fishing in the same pond, where the dissatisfied center and center-right voters are.” The BBB is the fifth party in the Peilingwijzer with 11-15 seats, and therefore has half as many seats as at the end of June, when the BBB was still as large as the VVD.
Research by I&O Research shows that voters of VVD and GroenLinks-PvdA mainly rely on the positions of their party, while NSC voters are mainly attracted by party leader Omtzigt. He is by far the most highly regarded politician. The fact that voters are now running away from him is because he does not yet have an election manifesto and therefore voters do not know what exactly he stands for.
Party leader Timmermans is well appreciated by his own supporters, with an 8.0, but he is not very popular with other voters, which gives him a 4.8 rating. VVD party leader Yesilgöz arouses less resistance. She gets a 6.2, while some voters who recently switched to the VVD mention her as a motivation to I&O Research.
Wilders on the rise, PvdD holds firm
In the latest Poll Guide, the rise of the PVV is also striking. Geert Wilders’ party goes from 12 to 16 to 15 to 19 seats. Voters who switch to the PVV cite I&O Research as the reason that the PVV is no longer excluded by the VVD and therefore has a chance of government participation.
According to Peter Kanne, it certainly also has to do with the more moderate tone that Wilders seems to take. “You also see this in the increasing appreciation for Wilders. He has gradually become elegant in the eyes of voters, unlike Baudet and Van Haga, for example.”
The Party for the Animals has had limited problems with internal vicissitudes in the Peilingwijzer. The party, of which Esther Ouwehand does not want to act as party leader for the time being, has 7 to 9 seats (was 7 to 10). According to Kanne, this is because the internal party conflict was quickly resolved and the voters “stand behind Ouwehand as one woman – because most PvdD voters are women”. Kanne expects the decline to continue if Ouwehand continues to refuse to act as party leader.
Drama for CDA and D66
The government parties D66 and CDA appear to be heading for a dramatic loss. D66, which now still has 24 seats in the House of Representatives, has 5 to 9 seats (was 6-10), the CDA on 4 to 6 (was 2-6). The appointment of Henri Bontenbal as party leader has not yet led to a turnaround. The fourth governing party, the Christian Union, is stable at 4 to 6 seats.
Furthermore, the SP is also in bad shape with 4 to 6 seats (was 3-5). The other parties that seem almost certain to gain seats are Forum for Democracy (3-5), the SGP and Volt (both 2-4), and JA21 and Denk (both 1-3). This would bring the number of parties in the House of Representatives to 15.
2023-09-28 10:10:13
#Poll #guide #VVD #NSC #GroenLinksPvdA #difference
