A late-season tropical storm expected to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this week could reduce U.S. oil production by about 4 million barrels, researchers said.
Storm Rafael was in the Caribbean late Monday and is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico on a route that will take it through key oil producing areas. According to the National Hurricane Center ()), winds could reach speeds of 100 miles per hour (161 km/h) on Wednesday.
U.S. oil producers could lose between 3.1 million and 4.9 million barrels of oil, according to energy analysis firm Earth Science Associates, which uses a model that estimates volume losses depending on past storm strength and path.
Natural gas production losses could range from 4.56 billion to 6.39 billion cubic feet, the model said. The high end assumes structural damage leading to prolonged shutdowns, said Tony Dupont, chief operating officer of Earth Science.
Shell SHEL und Chevron 
CVX said Monday that it was moving non-essential personnel from several platforms to the coast ahead of the storm. Shell said some drilling was paused (link), but production was impacted. Chevron also said routine oil and gas production was not affected.
Earth Science’s model predicts Rafael will have the second-largest impact of this year’s storms on offshore production, behind Hurricane Francine, which shut down up to 42 percent of oil and 52 percent of natural gas production (link).
Thomson ReutersThe path of Tropical Storm Rafael
Raphael, the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is on a path that takes it through areas of the Gulf that are home to many oil and gas platforms. The season runs until November 30th.
According to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach, there have been 10 named Atlantic storms this year since Sept. 24, a record for that period.
