“Large Drone Attack on Moscow Raises Questions about Ukrainian Involvement and American Response”

Moscow was the target of a large-scale drone strike on Tuesday. Most of the drones were shot down, but at least three came down on residential flats. The US government left it at a short statement: “We have seen the news and are still collecting information about what happened,” said a spokesman for President Biden’s National Security Council. “In general, we do not support attacks in Russia.” Other Western countries also kept their heads down.

The frugal response from the White House was met by a fierce attack from the Russian ambassador to the US. “What are these attempts to hide behind the statement that they are ‘gathering information,'” Anatoly Antonov said in a statement. “This is an encouragement to Ukrainian terrorists.”

The drones in Moscow, followed on Wednesday by several attacks from Ukraine on two Russian border regions, put the White House in an increasingly difficult position. Washington does not want to openly dismiss Kyiv, which otherwise denies any involvement. But the US has feared an escalation of the war since the beginning of the Russian invasion, which could tempt President Putin to retaliate, possibly with tactical nuclear weapons.

Ukrainians involved in attack

Because of these fears, President Biden has consistently held back the supply of weapons that could trigger such an escalation. For example, Washington still refuses to deliver missiles with a range of approximately 300 kilometers, the Atacms. Biden is afraid that if Ukraine gets access to this weapon, it will be tempted to attack Russian territory as well. But now the Americans have to see to it that those attacks do happen, even as far as the Kremlin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently denied any military involvement. But last week it became clear that the Americans now also assume that the Ukrainians are not completely spotless. US intelligence officials now believe it is possible that the drone attack on the Kremlin earlier this month was the work of a Ukrainian group. And that the attack was not part, as suggested in the West, of a ‘false flag’ operation by the Russians to put Kyiv in a bad light.

The intelligence services, CNN reported on the basis of confidential sources, would have picked up conversations after the attack between Ukrainian military and intelligence officials, who accused each other of being behind the attack. They also speculated that a commando group had carried out the spectacular action. The intelligence services say it is unlikely that Zelensky or other top figures ordered the drone attack, or knew about it.

Russian response

Tuesday’s drone strikes in Moscow, which were much larger in scope, must have fueled fears in Washington that there is yet another link to Ukraine. If so, how far will Ukrainian actions go? And more importantly, given the fears in the White House of an escalation of the war, how will the Kremlin retaliate for the attacks and what are the limits of Putin’s response?

It is striking that another important military ally of Kyiv, the United Kingdom, seems to be moving a little further and that Ukrainian actions on military targets in Russia are no longer a problem. “Ukraine has a legitimate right to defend itself,” British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said on Tuesday. “Legitimate military targets beyond one’s own border are part of Ukraine’s self-defense. And we have to recognize that.’

When it comes to arms deliveries, London is also getting ahead of the Americans. This month, for example, the British delivered the Storm Shadow to Kyiv, the cruise missile that has a range of more than 250 kilometers beyond the missiles that the US has provided so far. Since then, the missile has been used with great success by the Ukrainian army to destroy important strategic targets of the Russians: from headquarters to ammunition and petrol depots.

With this move, which was undoubtedly well coordinated with the US, London seems to have saved Washington from the fire. Because if the Atacms missile had been delivered, the Russian reaction to the American move would have been considerably fiercer. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, an ally of Putin, would also have threatened Russia’s nuclear arsenal for the umpteenth time.