An ammunition-intensive conflict
Reliable figures are inaccessible, but consumption levels on both sides are very high in a drawn-out conflict, a war sometimes bogged down in trenches with incessant fighting against a background of omnipresent artillery. The Russians were thus firing up to 50,000 shells a day in July, the Ukrainians up to 6,000, according to a French military source. But Ukrainian consumption has risen sharply since its counter-offensive at the end of August. And it will need enormous firepower to resist the Russian offensive expected for the coming weeks. kyiv, in fact, always demands more. It recently obtained the promise of heavy tanks but in particular wants more ground-to-air defense equipment and fighter planes, which the West is reluctant to deliver.
Because western chancelleries and experts repeat over and over how fundamental ammunition and maintenance are: simply to allow the continued use of weapons already sent. “Before talking about planes and tanks, let’s try to ensure the best possible after-sales service for the equipment that we have already delivered to them” in terms of ammunition and maintenance in operational condition, notes a French government source.
The United States alone has delivered more than 1,600 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and more than 8,500 Javelin anti-tank missiles, according to the State Department. This is the equivalent of five years of production of Javelin and thirteen years of production of Stinger, said Greg Hayes, the boss of the American group Raytheon, in December. He also claimed that in partnership with Lockheed Martin, he had increased the production of Javelin missiles to 400 units per month.
In France, Nexter has an annual production capacity of several tens of thousands of 155 mm shells. But the group is “almost at its peak”, according to a senior French officer. Clearly, the harm runs deep after three decades of the West cutting military spending after the fall of the Berlin Wall. “This brings us back to political economy in the service of post-Cold War peace dividends”, analysis for Agence France-Presse Ivan Klyszcz, researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Estonia. A model today “a little cornered by current challenges”he adds, recalling that the eastern countries of the alliance – Poland, the Baltic countries, Romania – could produce post-Soviet weapons, which Ukraine still uses a lot alongside Western equipment and of its domestic production.
William Alberque of the International Institute for Strategic Studies puts it bluntly: “Our defence, ammunition, logistical support and training industries are globally unsuitable” to the current challenge. “We need an industrial plan in the West, not just for Ukraine but for future issues like Taiwan and other potential wars”he concludes, referring to a conflict with China, Iran and even North Korea.
Very soon after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron talked about setting up a war economy. But the term was not sufficiently followed by effects. “The ability to replenish [les stocks] gets ready. Afterwards, it depends on whether the States are ready to make the financial effort., believes Léo Péria-Péigné, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations. Sign that the shortage is not a surprise, NATO has already turned to other solutions. “I see a lot of contacts with countries outside the alliance like South Korea, Morocco, Jordan, Pakistanargues Ivan Klyszcz. Short-term solutions will have to come from outside. Everything else will take months and months. »
