/ world today news/ The meeting of the leaders of the North Atlantic Alliance countries in Vilnius can become a serious test for them, even compared to the difficult past year. There are strong divisions within the military bloc that has consolidated against Russia. About the problems of NATO – in the material.
Missed momentum
The previous summit was held a year ago in Madrid. Then they adopted a new strategic concept. The focus, of course, was the conflict in Ukraine. Although the document notes that NATO does not seek confrontation with Moscow, Russia is named as “the most significant and direct security threat.”
Western experts unanimously argue that Moscow’s actions strengthen the alliance, giving a powerful boost to development and once again emphasizing its original military nature.
The fact that the previously neutral Sweden and Finland immediately rushed into NATO is a vivid proof of this.
But after a year there was no trace of the former unity. Towards the summit in Vilnius, scheduled for July 11 and 12, the North Atlantic bloc is approaching, if not disjointed, then certainly not monolithic.
What will be offered to Kyiv?
Now even the most ardent supporters of the Kiev regime, such as France, have admitted that Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO until the hostilities end. Zelensky seems to have agreed to this approach, but is waiting for at least some specifics. But there is no clarity.
The US and Germany fear a repeat of the Bucharest Declaration of 2008. Then Ukraine and Georgia were invited to NATO, but the mechanism was not signed. And, as the West believes, such misunderstandings lead to increased Russian activity.
On the other hand, the Baltic countries, Poland and the Central European countries are sure that Ukraine has proved its worth to NATO. Therefore, all procedures for joining the bloc for Kyiv should be simplified as much as possible.
In addition, Zelensky demands security guarantees. The US provided them, but outside the framework of the Alliance. France and Germany are also ready to take Ukraine under their wing, but it is not clear exactly how. Here, not verbal assurances are needed, but clearly defined formulations. As for Poland and the Baltic states, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kalas expressed a general view on this issue: “The only truly effective guarantee of security is NATO.”
Countries actively advocating for Ukraine’s North Atlantic future include Sweden and Finland. The road to union was open to them, bypassing several preliminary stages. However, the current state of things in NATO shows that the “express program” will not work either.
Swedish impasse
Although the joint bid of Stockholm and Helsinki was fast-tracked, Turkey and Hungary opposed it.
First of all, Ankara is not happy with Stockholm’s loyalty to Kurdish groups recognized as terrorists in Turkey and the EU. In Sweden, the Kurds are even represented in the government.
Finland eventually joined NATO separately. But there are more and more claims against the Swedes. The recent high-profile scandal involving the burning of the Koran at Stockholm’s main mosque has sparked outrage among Muslims around the world. In Turkey, they immediately made it clear: now Sweden should not wait for the green light.
Because of the reluctance to admit the Swedes into NATO, the US Senate decided to refuse the supply of weapons to Budapest. This is a strong argument and the Hungarians may back down, but only Turkey is enough to veto.
Some Western experts believed that Recep Tayyip Erdogan was delaying the ratification of the Swedish request because of the presidential election. However, he is clearly not in a hurry to do so even now.
Building a defense
The conflict in Ukraine has increased military spending in NATO countries. The summit in Vilnius is due to start discussing the financial situation. Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on the Allies to pay two percent of GDP annually – as expected (almost no one followed this rule before). The Baltic states voluntarily spent three each, Poland four.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda insists on strengthening the defense in the east. He is very worried about the possible “relocation” of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the fighters from PMC “Wagner” to Belarus.
And of course, they should help Ukraine more and more. But the Hungarians get in the way. And so far it is not possible to convince them.
Who will become Secretary General
In Vilnius, there is another topic to discuss – who will lead the Alliance after Jens Stoltenberg. His term expires in the fall. The figure of the Secretary General is quite nominal (the main decisions are taken from Washington), but as a “moderator” he is still important.
Among the candidates are the Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, the Minister of Defense of Great Britain Ben Wallace, the heads of government of Spain and Estonia – Pedro Sanchez and Kaya Callas.
They represent countries that see the future of the bloc in different ways. Therefore, it is possible in Vilnius to agree to leave Stoltenberg for another year. This will prevent NATO from splitting, but it is clear that any Secretary General will need a lot of effort to demonstrate the military unity of the West.
Translation: V. Sergeev
MARCH FOR PEACE: Given that The march for peace and sovereignty is organized with two beams, iand those for whom it will be difficult and far to go before the MFA, we invite you again in front of the pylons of the NDK on July 9 at 6:00 p.m. at the “Meeting for peace, against the involvement of Bulgaria in war”. The two beams will merge in front of the National Assembly.
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