AFP
21 months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this is becoming increasingly common the call for peace negotiations. International pressure is increasing, especially on Ukraine, to take up that challenge. In America, support for the war is declining and in Europe other news dominates the newspapers.
But is this the right time to negotiate? And does Russian President Putin even want to talk? No, says Kremlin watcher Mark Galeotti. Both countries have no interest in it (now).
The British Mark Galeotti is a historian, political scientist and Russia expert. He has published more than twenty books on Russian politics since the 1990s. In conversation with News hour he gives a look behind the scenes at the Kremlin.
Peace negotiations
According to Galeotti, Putin is currently not interested in peace negotiations at all. “Like Ukraine, Russia also feels that time is in their favor.”
Russia is not making much progress on the battlefield, but Putin also sees that the West’s initially unconditional support for Ukraine is slowly diminishing. Financial and material support is more difficult to get off the ground than a year ago.
“Putin always thought that we in the West were shallow hypocrites who one moment embrace the cause and the next moment we are all immediately distracted by something else.”
And so the war in Gaza is “exactly the alternative global crisis he has been waiting for,” says Galeotti. The more countries in the West interfere with Israel and Hamas, the less time and money they have for Ukraine, Putin reasons.
This is also not the right time for Ukraine to talk about peace negotiations, Galeotti thinks. Five months ago, Zelensky’s army launched another major offensive towards the east. Without success, because a major breakthrough was not forthcoming. If Zelensky invites Putin to the negotiating table now, the Russians will see this as recognition of Ukraine’s weaker position. That is exactly what Zelensky does not want.
‘Cold War’
There is little movement on the battlefield: sometimes one of the armies achieves a small victory that leads to a small gain of territory. But there are no major shifts. According to Galeotti, such a ‘Cold War scenario’ is also the most positive scenario at the moment. “The only thing we can do then is try to minimize the overall impact on Ukrainians, on us, and even on ordinary Russians.”
Because the Kremlin watcher thinks that it is a misconception on Putin’s part that time is now in his favor. His advisors would present the situation at the front as better than it actually is. The question is also whether Russia can sustain this war economy for long.
Russian support for war
Although many soldiers die, Galeotti does not expect this to lead to major changes in public opinion about the war. He also points out that the Kremlin is trying to keep deaths quiet. “For example, you see that not all funerals are covered in the local newspaper. And when families ask ‘who from our neighborhood has also suffered a loss?’, authorities sometimes come along to say: you are not allowed to do that.”
What is Putin’s position within the Kremlin? He has no real friends there, says Galeotti. However, there is a large group of “ruthlessly opportunistic kleptocrats” who are rich and powerful thanks to Putin. They continue to support the president “because they are terrified of what will happen if they turn against him.”
According to the British historian, this group always makes a cost-benefit analysis. If Putin no longer seems untouchable, they may quickly change their minds. “We had a foreshadowing of that during the infamous mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group. They all thought, let’s see how this turns out.”
But for now, Galeotti has no concrete indications that something like this will happen again in the short term. So unless Putin suddenly becomes seriously ill or dies, the course of the war will largely be determined on the battlefield. And it has been stuck there for months.
Nieuwsuur reporter Gert-Jan Dennekamp spoke today with Mark Galeotti. The entire English interview can be seen here:
‘Putin believes he will win by not losing and persevering’
2023-11-21 06:00:02
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