“Kobsak” reveals that the Fed is following the appointment Another hike in interest rate of 0.75% and a further signal to slow the rate hike again, pointing to seven problems, “Fed chairman” said, plunging the stock index of 900 points during the day.
November 4, 2022 – Mr. Kobsak Pootrakool, former minister attached to the Prime Minister’s office and Deputy General Manager Bangkok Bank posted on Facebook with the following content:
It’s not over yet, there is still a lot to climb !!!!!
Some ways to go. More ground to cover.
Probably the coolest sentence From the Fed chairman’s press conference last night.
But it is a word that the market does not like.
crashed all over the place
because this phrase means what the market hopes for
“The Fed is ending its rate hike cycle.”
it’s a dry dream
say it yourself
Because the Fed didn’t really think so.
As soon as the Fed committee opened the decision
It looks like the Fed is on track + 0.75%
and send additional signals as expected The Fed is slowing to raise interest rates.
making global financial markets improve
Dow Jones +400 points
Nasdaq +100 points
However, only 30 minutes later
After the Fed chairman started the press conference
The indices were reversed. Each roll was a film.
Making the Dow Jones reverse from +400 points to close at -505 points.
It fluctuates 900 points throughout the day
The Nasdaq is down again, near the end of the year.
Many people have asked what the Fed chairman said. He changed the mind of the market like this !!!
From listening to the 45-minute Q&A session, I think there are at least 7 big issues that the market doesn’t like.
Story 1 – Fed chairman said about the Fed to slow rate hikes and increase + 0.5% at next meeting.
Now we get closer to that point. But it might be possible at the next meeting or in January.
This means that also this year there could be a + 0.75%, depending on the data released.
Story 2 – Fed Interest Rate Could be higher than what was said in the Dot Plot in September.
Previously reported at 4.6%, the latter will be more.
As a result, markets expect interest rates to hit 5.1% in May next year.
In line with the president’s remarks several times in press releases that
Some ways to go. More ground to cover.
The interest rate hike is not over, there is still a lot to do.
Story 3 – It’s too early to stop
Too premature to take a break
that people like to say “The Fed is close to stopping interest rates.”
Fed chairman said it is too early to stop now
There are conditions to stop raising interest rates.
Inflation must have dropped sharply several months ago and the Fed must be confident. Inflation will return to 2%.
Story 4 – If I’m wrong, the Fed chairman makes a mistake by being “tough” and “distributing strong drugs”.
The Fed’s decision always carries two risks:
(1) Risk of overpaying for strong drugs until the economy collapses
(2) Risk of dispensing drugs too lightly, quitting too soon, entrenching inflation or returning
if you have to choose Would you like to choose the first way, which is a heavy hand, pays too much medicine.
Because doing so will result in an economic recession but you are sure you can stimulate the economy.
The second way.If you are missing, walk that way.
The Fed needs to focus on inflation again. and it will be more damaged
Story 5 – Inflation is stubborn than expected and the US job market stronger than expected
Despite the fact that the Fed has raised interest rates
But the number of unemployment is still the lowest in the last 50 years.
Inflation has not gone down, the Core PCE is at 5%.
Wages are still not reduced Sideway !!!
This means that the interest rate that has been raised is not high enough and has to rise again.
Story 6 – I was hoping there would be a soft landing.
Much more difficult now, much less of a chance.
The recession is ahead.
Story 7 – Many people have asked about the impact of the Fed interest rate hike on the global economy. and those countries
The Fed is watching
But the Fed can suppress inflation. will be the most important
better for the world
Others have to adapt.
Because if the Fed cannot bear inflation The damage to the world will be much more serious.
When investors get hit by 7 stories
who was secretly happy that the Fed had initially arrived on schedule
Then it turns into a film again, each roll. as we see
#Exploring the economy with Dr. Kob #Fed
