When American diplomat Kissinger vaguely expressed concern about the leadership of the United States in the past few years, he pointed out that a divided Atlantic Ocean would make Europe an appendage of Eurasia and be dominated by China, which hopes to restore the historical status of the “Central Kingdom.” Today it seems that Kissinger’s worries about the United States have come true. Europe and the United States are indeed drifting away, but Europe is planning a bigger game.
The Biden era has just begun, and it seems that China has found a reliable partner in the Sino-US game: German Chancellor Merkel. She resisted internal and external pressure without explicitly banning Huawei. She ignored the pressure from the Biden team and promoted the completion of the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement at the end of last year. She even gave a speech at the Davos Forum and Ying Chinese President Xi Jinping last month, agreeing that the world needs multilateralism and opposing small circles and a new cold war.
The problem is that Merkel is about to leave.
Germany will hold general elections in October this year, and Merkel has long promised not to seek re-election as prime minister. Merkel’s most popular successor is Armin Laschet. The governor of North Rhine-Westphalia was elected as the leader of the CDU last month and became the presumed candidate to represent Merkel in the election of prime minister this year.
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North Rhine-Westphalia is the locomotive of Germany’s economy, contributing more than 20% of the country’s GDP; Raschelt is well aware of the importance of the Chinese market, so he has a moderate attitude towards China and advocates pragmatic handling of China-Germany and China-EU relations.
However, this probably does not mean that Sino-German-China-EU relations will be smooth sailing in the future. Whether Raschelt is as full of political energy as Merkel to control the overall situation, or whether German politics will come together after Merkel’s resignation, making Raschelt’s diplomatic decision-making must average the interests of different factions is really unknown. Polls also show that the CDU may need to win over the Green Party to form a cabinet after the election, and the Green Party has recently accused Merkel of being too pro-China.
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How Germany will view China in the future is related to the question of how Europe will deal with itself in the world; this question is becoming more and more pressing as the Sino-US century struggle has become an unchangeable global pattern. Europe is a traditional ally of the United States, but it needs China for economic development. Europe is increasingly risky to become a victim of the struggle between China and the United States. Europe is no doubt aware of the crisis.
How Europe wants to get out of the shell, of course, there are internal disputes over routes, and policy will inevitably be upset, but a study can see the clues of a major trend.
The global epidemic is accelerating the reshaping of the European worldview. The pan-European think tank “European Council on Foreign Relations” (ECFR) survey found that only 15% of Europeans believe that the 21st century will be a world where the Cold War duality is standing on the sidelines; 29% of Europeans believe that , The 21st century is an era in which “people do not punish the earth for themselves.” Every country can only rely on itself. This generalized structure of the EU is likely to fail.
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The largest 42% of Europeans judged that the 21st century is a multi-polar world, and whether Europe can ride the battlefield for a while or become an idle generation is irrelevant, depends on the ability of European countries to act together. This kind of world view can be described as a combination of globalism and nationalism. On the one hand, there is hope for the supranational structure of the EU, but on the other hand, it is to stand alone and stand up against other superpowers, because the ideal world cannot rely on China, the United States or Russia.
This seems to be in line with the argument of the late British historian Alan Milward many years ago: The European integration plan is not the sublimation of the sovereignty of the nation state, but to restore the sovereignty of the nation state, because the individual power of European countries is too small.
“Europe first” of course does not mean that Europe will invest in China, but to a certain extent…European independence also means that one day it will get rid of dependence on the Chinese market…
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[Fulltextforsubscribers:Chineseandforeignwide-anglelens——How did Germany and Europe change their attitude towards China in the post-Merkel era?】
Follow up[China-US wrestling]the new situation, immediately understand
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Author: Lian Zhaofeng
Column name: China and foreign countries
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