The time is near to negotiate peace in Ukraine to reduce the risk of another devastating world war, but dreams of breaking up Russia could unleash nuclear chaos, commented the patriarch of US diplomacy, Henry Kissinger, in his op-ed on the Spectator magazine.
Kissinger, who was the architect of the Cold War’s détente policy with the Soviet Union as secretary of state under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, has met with Vladimir Putin on several occasions since he became Russia’s president in 2000.
There is so far no way out of the conflict that began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, in which tens of thousands of people were killed and millions forced to flee their homes. Russia currently controls almost a fifth of the territory of Ukraine, Reuters notes.
The Kremlin says Kiev must recognize Moscow’s annexation of four southern and eastern Ukrainian regions it partially controls. Ukraine is demanding that all Russian troops leave its territory, including the Crimea peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Ukraine has applied to join NATO after Moscow announced its annexation of those areas in September .
“The time is approaching to build on the strategic changes and integrate them into a new structure aimed at achieving a negotiated peace”, wrote Kissinger in Spectator magazine. In his opinion “a peace process must link Ukraine to NATO in a definitive way”. The alternative of neutrality will no longer make sense, he wrote in an article entitled “How to Avoid Another World War”.
The diplomat advises to settle down a ceasefire line along the existing borders from 24 February, from which the war began. According to him, Russia should give up its conquests after that date, but not the territory it occupied almost a decade ago, including Crimea. “This territory can be negotiated after the ceasefire”, Kissinger thinks.
According to him, if the pre-war demarcation line between Ukraine and Russia cannot be achieved through fighting or negotiation, the application of the principle of self-determination can be explored, but through referenda observed internationally.
The objective of the peace process would be twofold: to confirm the freedom of Ukraine and to define a new international architecture for the security of Central-Eastern Europe. Russia should find a place in such an order, Kissinger believes.
“The preferred outcome for some is for Russia to be rendered impotent by the war. I do not agree. For all its propensity for violence, Russia has made a decisive contribution to the global balance and balance of power for more than half a millennium. Its historical role should not be minimized. Russia’s military failures have not eliminated its overall nuclear capabilities, allowing it to threaten an escalation in Ukraine.” Kissinger points out.
Breaking Russia apart, or destroying its ability to conduct strategic policy, could turn its territory, which spans 11 time zones, into a contentious vacuum, he said. “Its rival communities may decide to settle their disputes by force. Other countries may seek to expand their claims by force. All of these dangers will be compounded by the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons, making Russia one of the two most large nuclear states in the world”, Kissinger added.
Ukraine’s response: We don’t want a deal with the devil
On Sunday, Kiev rejected the formula proposed by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, Reuters reported.
“Mr. Kissinger still has no understanding. Neither of the nature of the war nor of its consequences for international relations.” Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on the Telegram social network. “In fact, the recipe that the former secretary of state offers, but is afraid to say out loud, is simple: to appease the aggressor by sacrificing parts of Ukraine and obtaining guarantees of non-aggression towards other European countries Oriental”.
He added that “all supporters of simple solutions should remember the following obvious: any deal with the devil – an ugly peace at the expense of Ukrainian lands – will be a victory for Putin and a recipe for success for autocrats around the world.”
In an interview on Saturday, CIA Director William Burns said that while most conflicts end in negotiations, the CIA’s assessment is that Russia is not yet serious enough to enter into real negotiations to end the war.
