This week, US media reported that North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, is planning a visit to Russia later this month.
The purpose of the visit is reportedly to hold talks with President Vladimir Putin about supplies of arms and ammunition to Russia.
The New York Times refers to central American and allied sources, but the allegedly planned visit has not been confirmed by Russia or North Korea.
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Ben Wallace, who was Britain’s defense minister from 2019 to 2023, takes the opportunity to make a sour comment about Putin and the former superpower.
“So that’s how it ends, Mr. Putin. Once-mighty Russia frantically looking for friends, begging North Korea for 1960s weapons,” Wallace writes on Twitter/X.
– How big a defeat is it for Putin and Russia to have to beg Kim and North Korea for ammunition and weapons?
– When Russia now approaches North Korea in this way, they must be a little desperate. North Korea is probably not the best company, says Russia expert and senior researcher at Nupi, Jakub M. Godzimirski, to Nettavisen.
– It is somewhat surprising that Russia now has to get drones from Iran and ammunition from North Korea. Russia had probably not imagined that they would become so dependent on these two countries when it comes to important access to military technology and ammunition, says Godzimirski.
Russia is already using Iranian-made drones in the war of aggression against Ukraine.
Geir Helgesen is head of the Nordic Institute for Asian Studies at the University of Copenhagen. He thinks Putin cares very little about who he gets weapons and other war material from.
– I think these people don’t care where it comes from, as long as they can use it. So whether Putin would be sorry to beg a North Korean dictator for weapons, I don’t think that is part of his thinking, says Helgesen to Nettavisen.
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Lots of weapons in North Korea
Helgesen has observed North Korea for four decades, and has visited the country a number of times. He believes that a possible arms agreement between Russia and North Korea is important for Kim Jong-un.
– North Korea is excluded from the good company and cannot trade legally – and almost not illegally either because their attempts at illegal trade are stopped. It is clear that if Kim gets an agreement in place with a pressured Russian president who needs bullets and gunpowder, it could ease the economy of North Korea, he says.
– I don’t even think he will consider the idea of becoming more unpopular in the West if he makes an agreement with Putin, says Helgesen.
– Does North Korea have enough gunpowder and bullets to dispose of?
– Yes, they have a large, oversized defence. There is no doubt about that, says Helgesen.
Godzimirski says North Korea has enormous amounts of weapons and ammunition.
– North Korea is a militarized society that sits on large quantities of weapons and ammunition. They have been preparing for war ever since the Korean War, so they have large inventories and large production capacity. What is practical for Russia is that North Korea has weapons systems that are compatible with the systems they themselves are using, he says.
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Russia is in desperate need of more weapons for the war in Ukraine, and especially ammunition and artillery shells. North Korea, for its part, is affected by international sanctions and food shortages, and has an enormous need for money.
Godzimirski says there are also rumors of another possible trade between Kim and Putin: North Korean munitions for Russian nuclear submarine technology.
– There is talk of North Korea demanding access to technology that enables them to build nuclear-powered submarines. If North Korea gets nuclear-powered submarines, they can get even closer to the US and be even more threatening, says Godzimirski.
And this is how it ends Mr Putin…the once mighty Russia scrabbling around looking for friends and begging North Korea for weapons from the 1960’s.
— Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP (@BWallaceMP) September 5, 2023
– The sanctions system may collapse
Nuclear-powered submarines and advanced satellite technology can contribute to North Korea gaining a strengthened strategic nuclear weapons capacity, i.e. a longer range of its nuclear weapons.
Certain voices in South Korea believe that it is unlikely that Russia and North Korea will enter into a collaboration that will strengthen the latter’s strategic nuclear weapons capacity, according to BBCas in the long term it could pose a strategic threat to Russia itself.
Even if Russia does not supply North Korea with advanced weapons technology, it may still finance North Korea’s disputed nuclear weapons program.
– If Russia pays with oil and food, then it can revive the North Korean economy, which in turn can strengthen North Korea’s weapons systems, says researcher Yang Uk at the Asian Institute for Policy Studies to BBC.
– For 15 years we have built a network of sanctions against North Korea, with the intention of stopping them from developing and negotiating weapons of mass destruction. Now Russia, which is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, can cause the whole system to collapse, he says.
– A kind of horse trading
Weapons and other war material were also a topic when Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently visited North Korea.
– He didn’t go there to lie on the beach. He went there to get an overview of what North Korea has to offer. A kind of horse-trading may have occurred, that North Korea put forward demands to negotiate at the highest political level. Kim will be able to sell meeting Putin as a success at home, says Godzimirski.
South Korean intelligence claims that Shoigu suggested that Russia, China and North Korea begin holding joint naval exercises, similar to the joint naval exercises of the US, South Korea and Japan.
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2023-09-06 20:43:14
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