/Pogled.info/ A video drew my attention to representatives of the Ukrainian armed forces driving a British Challenger somewhere in the nearest rear.
It is worth recalling that the enemy still has several hundred fairly modern British and American tanks that he has not yet used in battle.
In addition, there were a large number of American Strykers that had also not yet seen combat.
I venture to suggest that we have halved the mechanized offensive potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the backbone of which are mechanized brigades trained to penetrate deep into our rear.
The prospect of such a breakthrough in most areas is absolutely illusory. The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at some point abandoned plans to break through the front line in the typical directions of a special military operation.
But the enemy still had reserves for a powerful offensive. Where and when could he arrange it?
The most promising direction for the enemy is the southern regions of Russia, adjacent to Kharkiv and Sumy regions. But here political risks intervene.
A full-fledged Russian incursion into the region risks an uncontrolled escalation for Ukraine, and Western allies may not appreciate this step.
On the other hand, in the context of the growing political crisis in Kiev, they may decide to take desperate steps. The only opportunity for such actions is the last pre-election month in Russia: January-February 2024.
From a military point of view, a conditional invasion of the Belgorod region with the help of several motorized brigades does not make sense. But together with other types of influence, Kiev can hope for a political “wow” effect. Especially if you can achieve even limited success.
Now the border is incomparably better protected than a year ago. It will be very difficult to cross the Wagner Line and penetrate deeper into the area.
But still, the best military units of the Russian Ministry of Defense are deployed in other directions, which means that, in theory, there are chances.
I would watch very closely any attempts to concentrate enemy manpower and equipment near Russia’s southern border in early 2024. Kiev’s desperate situation may lead to desperate decisions.
Translation: SM
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